Will XRP price rebound 20% in March? Double bottom pattern + whale return points to a key breakout at $1.70

February 26 News: According to Cointelegraph, XRP is currently priced at around $1.44. Since reaching its peak in October 2025, it has retraced over 50% and has been in a downtrend for five consecutive months. As the price held the support zone between $1.30 and $1.35 twice in February, the market has begun to focus on whether it is forming a typical double bottom pattern. If confirmed, this structure could bring about approximately 20% rebound potential in March. (Source: TradingView) From a technical perspective, XRP’s neckline is near $1.50. Once a valid breakout occurs above this key resistance on the daily chart, the upward target could be between $1.68 and $1.70, significantly increasing short-term rebound expectations. After multiple tests of the bottom area and subsequent rebounds, it indicates that buying interest is gradually accumulating at low levels, and market sentiment has eased compared to the previous extreme pessimism phase.

On-chain data also signals marginal improvement. CryptoQuant data shows that the 90-day moving average of whale net outflows has shrunk from about -33.5 million XRP in December 2025 to approximately -3.29 million XRP, indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure. Meanwhile, the supply of wallets holding at least 1,000 XRP has increased again, suggesting that large holders are re-accumulating positions at low prices. Similar slowing of whale outflows in the past, such as in April 2025, was followed by a phase of over 50% price rally.

However, the rebound path still faces multiple technical resistances. The $1.68 to $1.70 zone is overlapped with the dynamic resistance of the 50-day EMA, which XRP has failed to break above effectively throughout February. If it encounters resistance again at this level, the price could form a bearish pennant pattern, with a downside target revisiting the $1.00 level, implying a potential retracement of nearly 30%.

On a macro level, there are also uncertainties. If global risk aversion increases or geopolitical tensions escalate, liquidity for high-volatility crypto assets may tighten, weakening the upward momentum suggested by technical patterns. Therefore, the key indicators for XRP’s March trend remain the validity of the $1.50 breakout, whale holdings changes, and overall crypto market risk appetite. If these factors resonate positively, the probability of a price recovery toward $1.70 will significantly increase.