February 13 News: Bitcoin prices continue to weaken, falling another 1.39% in the past 24 hours, with a total decline of over 30% this month. Against a backdrop of a generally weak macro environment, on-chain data shows that some large whales’ concentrated transfer activities are amplifying short-term market volatility risks.
The on-chain tracking platform Lookonchain disclosed that a whale address marked as 3NVeXm has been transferring Bitcoin to exchanges for the past three weeks. Initially, the transfers were small, but recently they have accelerated significantly. On February 11, this address transferred 5,000 BTC in one go, followed by an additional 2,800 BTC. Arkham data indicates that these large inflows closely coincide with the decline in Bitcoin’s price. Lookonchain pointed out that every time this address makes a transfer, the price tends to drop quickly.
As of now, this wallet still holds about 166.5 BTC, with a market value of over $11 million. The market generally believes that transferring assets to exchanges often indicates liquidation or hedging intentions, which, during sensitive emotional periods, can trigger follow-on selling and intensify short-term downward pressure.
Meanwhile, signs of market panic are evident. An analyst stated that Bitcoin’s recent realized losses have reached $2.3 billion, making it one of the largest loss events in history. Data shows that short-term holders, those holding less than 155 days, are the main source of selling pressure, especially investors who entered the market between $80,000 and $110,000, currently suffering heavy losses.
In contrast, long-term holders remain relatively stable. Historical experience suggests that after extreme declines, technical rebounds often occur, but this does not mean the trend has reversed. CryptoQuant analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s actual price is around $55,000. In past bear markets, prices often fell more than 20% below this level before forming a bottom.
If subsequent pullbacks approach the $40,000 region, it may be closer to a cyclical bottom. Before that, whale movements and on-chain fund flows will continue to be important signals for assessing Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
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