Bitcoin long orders on Bitfinex hit a 2-year high: Can the price rise to $100,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to its lowest level in more than two months, as the price returned to test the $84,000 support. This sell-off took place in the context of widespread risk-averse sentiment, after Microsoft (MSFT US) shares fell 11% due to reports of increased capital expenditure and revenue from cloud server services that did not meet expectations.

Investors are now learning what caused the demand for bullish margin positions to reach a two-year high, despite the fact that the price of BTC has fallen by as much as 26% in the past 90 days. Some traders are concerned that excessive leverage could lead to forced liquidations, especially as $360 million worth of BTC futures positions were wiped out on Thursday.

! Bitcoin long orders on Bitfinex hit 2-year highs: Can the price rise to $100,000?Bitcoin Long Orders on Bitfinex | Source: TradingView On the Bitfinex exchange, demand for long positions has reached its highest level since November 2023, with a total of 83,933 BTC. Although the notional value of these positions amounts to $7.3 billion, borrowing costs remain below 0.01% per year, thanks to Bitfinex’s margin requirements far exceeding the value of the loan. Many traders prefer to use margin instead of futures contracts to avoid the “cost of holding positions,” which currently hover around 5% per year for BTC futures.

! Bitcoin long orders on Bitfinex hit 2-year highs: Can the price rise to $100,000?Two-month Bitcoin futures annual premium | Source: Laevitas.chTypically, monthly BTC futures trade at an annual spread of 5% to 10% compared to the spot market, due to the extended settlement period. During bullish periods, the index usually crosses the 10% neutral threshold. The last time this happened was in early February 2025, when Bitcoin reached a price of nearly $103,500.

The number of long orders on Bitfinex increased neutrally due to the arbitrage strategy

Professional traders often adopt a “cash and carry” strategy to take advantage of the interest rate differential between the futures and margin markets. Therefore, the net impact of the increase in long-term margin positions on Bitfinex can be seen as neutral, as arbitrage requires selling BTC futures at the same time. Therefore, an increase in margin activity should not be interpreted merely as a forecast of a bullish trend.

Investor sentiment and concerns about AI valuation

The lack of confidence in the Bitcoin investor community partly stems from concerns about overvaluation in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, has acknowledged that the sector has “irrational elements” and emphasized the huge energy demands of the growing AI infrastructure. According to the BBC, these sky-high valuations have led many analysts to express skepticism.

Microsoft, with a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion, saw its shares plummet after announcing $625 billion in “remaining performance obligations” — unpaid contracts. According to Fortune, about $280 billion of this is related to OpenAI, leading many to question when Microsoft is both a major investor and a cloud service provider for this organization.

! Bitcoin long orders on Bitfinex hit 2-year highs: Can the price rise to $100,000? Gold/USD price (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right), intraday | Source: TradingView## Bitcoin falls with gold’s strong volatility trend

Bitcoin’s decline on Thursday coincided with an 8% plunge in gold prices in less than 30 minutes, although the precious metal recovered half of its losses shortly afterwards. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) ETF recorded trading volumes exceeding $25 billion on Thursday, marking a record high.

! Bitcoin long orders on Bitfinex hit 2-year highs: Can the price rise to $100,000?

With the combined market capitalization of gold and silver reaching $43.4 trillion, fears of a “wave of divestment” are growing. This suggests that investors are seeking shelter in scarce assets, although the fixed bond yield remains above 3.5%.

In conclusion, despite the sharp increase in long positions on Bitfinex, on-chain data and derivatives markets have yet to provide clear evidence of a full-blown bullish rally for Bitcoin.

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