Is Bitcoin truly the "Digital Gold"?… Alea Research reexamines the positioning of cryptocurrencies amid interest rate shocks

Alea Research, a professional research institution in cryptocurrencies, pointed out in its recent macro environment analysis report that the surge in US Treasury yields and Japan’s fiscal policy chaos are affecting the overall global risk asset market. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are not being traded as “digital gold,” but rather as “macro risk beta linked to interest rate shocks.”

The report states that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen by an unprecedented 19 basis points, and the 30-year yield has experienced the largest single-day increase since 2003. This is a follow-up to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s call for an early general election in February and the announcement of fiscal stimulus measures. During this process, assets sensitive to duration such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and long-term bonds have come under comprehensive pressure. The higher the domestic yields, the greater the likelihood that Japan will reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, which could lead to long-term liquidity tightening in the US Treasury market. Alea Research’s analysis suggests that this trend also exerts significant negative pressure on the leverage and price elasticity of the cryptocurrency market (Alea Research).

This week, while gold surpassed $4,800 per ounce to hit a record high, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to follow the same trend. This indicates that BTC is being viewed as a “scarce asset” rather than a “beta asset exposed to excess supply when risk aversion is triggered.” Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies are no longer effective as short-term hedging tools. As global economic sensitivity increases, their classification as risk assets makes them more susceptible to selling pressure, which is emphasized.

Alea Research also mentioned that the New York Stock Exchange is preparing a trading platform supporting tokenized stocks, real-time settlement, and 24/7 trading. This indicates that traditional finance is absorbing most functions beyond the core advantages of DeFi, such as “permissionless” and “composability,” and is rapidly shifting market paradigms. This change is interpreted as a signal of conflict between a regulated-friendly tokenized market and the inherent structural innovation of cryptocurrencies (Alea Research).

On the other hand, the report also highlights an optimistic aspect. DeFi maintaining public infrastructure and composability can still demonstrate its unique value. Protocols like Aave, Morpho, and Euler are building new DeFi models that connect to traditional financial systems and proposing structural value creation methods understandable to institutional investors (e.g., yield-based token buyback models). They are showing a trend beyond mere technical blockchain stacks, integrating operations, yields, and circulation into an on-chain system, gradually evolving into financial platforms based on actual needs.

Additionally, as Anthropic’s AI index report was released at the Davos Forum, the rise of AI technology as a future economic and policy variable is noteworthy. As AI leads to uneven productivity and triggers structural changes starting with high-skilled jobs, the cryptocurrency market is also expected to be affected. Industries with faster development speeds and more complex structures will see a faster “marginal buying” trend of funds flowing into differentiated assets, implying that purchasing power may flow into specific digital asset protocols (Alea Research).

Ultimately, this week’s report confirms that cryptocurrencies are no longer “privileged assets for quick profits,” but still constitute an asset class with structural opportunities. Factors such as derivatives and token distribution dynamics, the learning speed of AI and traditional finance, and escalating geopolitical tensions will provide new narratives and challenges for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.