BlockBeats News, January 16 — The market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals, as the four-year cycle model of Bitcoin, long considered the core narrative, is weakening. Analysts point out that the influence of politics and macro policies on prices is gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving events.
Although the US stock market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively lagging, reflecting that the market is more driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. Under traditional models, the cycle should be entering its late stage in early 2026, but current trends indicate investors are delaying this phase, with policy factors taking the lead.
Institutional analysts believe that pre-election fiscal stimulus and the blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies are creating an environment similar to “financial repression.” In the context of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, traditional bonds and credit become less attractive, increasing the appeal of digital assets.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally believes that Bitcoin's trajectory will depend more on policy directions and regulatory developments, especially the US crypto market structure legislation. Analysts note that institutional demand driven by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds further enter the market.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Six Countries Unite to Stabilize Energy Market, Oil Prices Fall Nearly 2%, Bitcoin Rebounds to $70,800
On March 20, a multi-country coordinated action stabilized the energy market, oil prices fell, and Bitcoin rebounded to $70,800 at one point, gaining over 1% for the day. Mainstream coins such as Ethereum and XRP rose less than 1%. Market uncertainty remains, stock market momentum has shifted to bearish, which could impact financial markets.
GateNews8m ago
Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Oil Boom Impact, $70,000 Key Support Level Becomes Rebound Focus
Bitcoin demonstrates resilience amid global market volatility, outperforming most assets despite recent declines exceeding 3%. Analysts point out that the support zone of 69,000 to 70,000 USD is crucial for future price movements, and holding this level could trigger a rebound. Overall, Bitcoin exhibits clear safe-haven characteristics against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and soaring oil prices.
GateNews11m ago
STRC Current Value Reveals MSTR Risk: Bitcoin Accumulation Commitment May Fall Short
Strategy's dividend preferred stock Stretch (STRC) may be overvalued due to its high annualized dividend yield of 11.5% and significantly increased future payment obligations. While it may improve the balance sheet in the short term, if Bitcoin's appreciation fails to exceed the high dividend yield, common shareholders' returns will be limited, and the market remains cautious about STRC's long-term sustainability.
GateNews12m ago
XRP Meme Coins Become "Invisible Accumulation Tools"? Analysis of New XRPL Strategies and Risks
As XRPL ecosystem activity increases, XRP meme coins have become a new pathway for some traders to increase their XRP holdings. The current meme coin market cap is approximately $50 million, attracting speculative capital attention. Through AMM pools trading with XRP, traders can achieve "passive accumulation." The overall market cap is approximately $418 million, with meme coins showing significant volatility, but liquidity and market attention remain limited. In the short term, they should be viewed as trading tools with both risks and rewards.
GateNews13m ago
Pi Network rebounds 3%, with the token listing on Kraken boosting buying confidence
Pi Network (PI) has recently surged, showing weakening profit-taking trends. Kraken and LBank have been added as official centralized exchanges supporting PI trading, enhancing liquidity. On-chain data shows CEX net inflows turning positive, indicating strengthened holding intent among holders. Technical analysis shows PI still faces resistance but has rebound potential, requiring a breakthrough of the 50-day moving average and rising RSI to challenge the psychological $0.20 level.
MarketWhisper21m ago
Amundi adopts Chainlink to promote tokenized funds, LINK still struggles to break $10
European asset manager Amundi has partnered with tokenization platform Spiko to launch a $100 million Spiko Amundi Overnight Swap Fund (SAFO), selecting Chainlink as its oracle infrastructure. However, LINK has failed to break above $10 since February. Despite on-chain data showing declining LINK holdings and increased ETF inflows, market sentiment remains cautious, making it difficult for prices to rise in the short term, and institutional adoption has yet to become a price catalyst.
MarketWhisper25m ago
