On January 14, news reports indicate that under the combined influence of improved regulatory environment, a rebound in on-chain data, and changes in capital structure, discussions about “Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in performance by 2026” have significantly heated up. Multiple indicators suggest that ETH is likely to end its recent years of relative weakness and enter a window of structural recovery.
Looking at historical performance, according to CoinGecko data, since 2023, Ethereum’s cumulative increase has been approximately 160%, which is significantly behind Bitcoin’s roughly 457% gain. This long-term gap has been a constraint on market confidence. However, overall, signs of divergence are beginning to loosen. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 66% at the beginning of 2026 before starting to decline, reflecting capital rotation from a single dominant asset to other mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has increased by about 3.6% this year. Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of the quantitative yield protocol Axis, stated that the rebound of ETH/BTC combined with Bitcoin’s stagnation in dominance has historically been associated with a phase of strength in altcoins, especially after Bitcoin ETF demand stabilized, prompting some funds to seek higher risk returns within the Ethereum ecosystem.
On-chain fundamentals also support this outlook. Data shows that Ethereum’s total transaction volume in 2026 increased by approximately 6.8% year-over-year, reaching an average of 2.05 million transactions per day. Since mid-December last year, this has increased by over 30%, reflecting continued growth in DeFi, Layer 2, and re-staking activities.
Overall, the market remains cautious about a full-scale “altcoin season.” Prediction platforms indicate that the probability of a large-scale altcoin rally before April 2026 is less than 20%. However, many industry experts believe that potential ETF capital inflows, fee burn mechanisms, Layer 2 expansion, and protocol upgrades such as Fusaka and Glamsterdam could gradually push Ethereum towards becoming an “AI and smart contract settlement layer.”
Although ETH’s return rate this year has slightly outperformed Bitcoin, general analysis suggests that whether it can sustain excess performance in 2026 still depends on the coordination of macro liquidity and the pace of regulatory implementation.
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