Fidelity Global Macro Economic Director Jurrien Timmer’s latest analysis of Bitcoin asset properties combines Bitcoin’s valuation model with the technology adoption cycle (S-Curve), explaining the recent stagnation phenomenon of Bitcoin. Timmer also points out that Bitcoin’s current trend bottom is at $65,000. He agrees that the power of the halving cycle is weakening, but this does not mean that a bear market no longer exists.
Bitcoin on the other hand, took the year off (or at least the past few months). It is following the internet S-curve a lot closer now than the power law curve.
It’s interesting that a lot of Bitcoin folks are proclaiming that the four year cycle is dead and a new structural up… pic.twitter.com/ibQr4hAzlf
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) January 9, 2026
Fidelity Bitcoin Valuation Model: BTC Enters Stagnation
According to Fidelity’s Bitcoin valuation model, Bitcoin has recently begun to stagnate. Jurrien Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s curve is closer to the internet S-curve (S-Curve). This curve model is widely used to explain the adoption process of innovative technologies, such as the early internet or the mobile phone development path in the 2000s.
It is worth noting that Fidelity’s model is based on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, interest rates, and money supply, and does not make price predictions for Bitcoin.
Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin ended? BTC support at $65,000
Regarding many Bitcoin users claiming that “the four-year cycle has ended and a new structural upward wave is coming,” Timmer remains skeptical. He agrees that the power of the Bitcoin halving cycle is weakening but remains doubtful about the idea that a bear market no longer exists.
According to his valuation model, Bitcoin’s support level is currently at $65,000 (the high of the previous cycle), followed by $45,000 on the power law trend line. But if Bitcoin consolidates over the next year, this trend line could approach $65,000, becoming Bitcoin’s critical support or death line. But perhaps that will be a story for a year from now!
This article, Fidelity Bitcoin Valuation Model: BTC Enters Stagnation, Support at $65,000, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
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