Bitwise Matt Hougan: Bitcoin will enter a decade of steady growth, with returns that are not spectacular but strong

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts that Bitcoin will show a steady upward trend over the next ten years rather than explosive growth, emphasizing its stable returns.

“I believe we are in a sustained 10-year period of steady, strong returns. While the returns are not astonishing, they are robust, with lower volatility, and there will be ups and downs.” Matt Hougan said on CNBC on Friday.

Hougan predicts a paradigm shift for Bitcoin. He expects this cryptocurrency to bid farewell to the four-year “boom and bust” cycle and transition into a “10-year grind” characterized by sustained but no longer explosive returns. In recent interviews and the company’s annual outlook, Hougan forecasts that although digital assets will perform modestly by the end of 2025, Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in 2026 driven by institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds.

Hougan remains firm in his prediction that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin.

Hougan’s outlook comes after a challenging year for digital assets. Bitcoin has declined about 7% so far this year and is currently trading around $87,000, down more than 30% from its peak of $126,000 in October. He attributes this sluggish performance to residual retail investor expectations based on the traditional four-year halving cycle, which has historically triggered sharp rallies followed by deep corrections. The four-year cycle has effectively ended Hougan stated during a recent CNBC appearance: “The four-year cycle has actually ended.” He emphasized that the halving effect, interest rate fluctuations, and leverage-driven speculation are weakening. Instead, he foresees the next decade as a period of “robust but not astonishing” growth, with Bitcoin achieving sustainable growth amid volatility, thanks to institutional capital inflows that help suppress fluctuations. In Bitwise’s early-month report, the “Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2026,” co-authored by Hougan and Research Director Ryan Rasmussen, the firm is very optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The primary prediction is that, fueled by accelerating institutional demand, spot ETF adoption, and a pro-cryptocurrency regulatory environment under the Trump administration, Bitcoin will “break the four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high.” Hougan highlighted the role of ETFs, predicting that as platforms like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch expand their channels, ETFs will absorb over 100% of new Bitcoin supply—about 166,000 BTC, worth approximately $15.3 billion at current prices. Volatility is another key theme. Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s volatility next year will be lower than Nvidia’s stock, and notes that throughout 2025, this cryptocurrency’s volatility has already fallen below that of the chipmaker. This reduced risk stems from a shift in holder structure: institutions now employ mechanical rebalancing of their portfolios, offsetting retail traders’ momentum chasing and preventing deeper declines. Hougan explained, “We are seeing a ‘staircase upward, elevator downward’ pattern” (referring to milder corrections), adding that thanks to ongoing buying by donation funds and other funds, recent corrections have been limited to 30%, compared to 60% historically. As an additional forecast, Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks to decline further, reinforcing its role as a diversified asset.

“Ten-year grind” Hougan’s “ten-year grind” thesis aligns with views from other industry leaders like ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Bea, who also believe Bitcoin’s performance will remain strong but will become more subdued as market dynamics mature. The expansion of stablecoins (now exceeding $300 billion in market cap) and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)—potentially bringing trillions of dollars onto the chain through custodial trusts and settlement plans like those of DTCC—are seen as long-term catalysts. However, Hougan warns that regulatory clarity, especially the passage of the CLARITY Act, is crucial; without it, the rally could be hindered, but once approved, it will signal a “safe entry” for investors during pullbacks. These predictions are not limited to Bitcoin. Bitwise foresees that, following Brown University and Harvard University, half of Ivy League endowments will allocate to cryptocurrencies, potentially unlocking billions of dollars from their combined $871 billion in assets. If the CLARITY Act passes, Ethereum and Solana are also expected to reach new highs, benefiting from the broader stablecoin and tokenization trends.

Hougan remains optimistic about 2026 overall, reiterating in interviews that the market could close higher at year-end, but he has not provided a specific price target.

According to sentiment indicators, Bitcoin is currently in the “extreme fear” zone, and Hougan’s outlook offers a rational contrarian view on the cryptocurrency’s volatility. As institutional participation continues to grow—evidenced by a record $85.7 trillion in crypto derivatives trading volume this year—2026 could mark the dawn of maturity for cryptocurrencies, shifting from speculative bets to a staple in diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, skeptics point out that human psychology may sustain cycle effects; despite structural changes, these could still influence price movements.