Bitcoin and Ethereum plunge over 22% in Q4, crypto market's "Christmas rally" unexpectedly absent

Q4 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to deliver the anticipated year-end rebound, and the “Christmas rally” officially fizzled out, highlighting the fragility of upward momentum in cryptocurrencies amid a backdrop of liquidity shortages and declining risk appetite. After entering late December, Bitcoin made multiple attempts to recover key levels but was met with clear selling pressure, while Ethereum and other large-cap mainstream tokens moved in tandem and weakened.

Data shows that, according to CoinGlass statistics, Bitcoin’s cumulative decline by the end of December was approximately 22%, likely making it the worst-performing month since December 2018; Ethereum’s decline in Q4 2025 is expected to reach 28.07%. This performance starkly contrasts with the typical upward trend seen at the end of the year in previous years.

The so-called “Christmas rally” usually refers to the price increase from the last week of December to early January, driven by liquidity contraction, year-end asset rebalancing, and holiday sentiment. However, this year’s trend resembles position reduction and risk aversion rather than the start of a new crypto bull market. Historically, the crypto market often relies on year-end capital inflows to lay the foundation for a new cycle, but this pattern has not been replicated in the current trend.

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s rapid decline in Q4 reflects rising risk aversion rather than expanding risk appetite. This contrasts with the precious metals market. Under expectations of rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, gold, silver, and platinum prices have hit new highs. Supported by ongoing central bank purchases and increased ETF allocations, gold has further solidified its status as a safe-haven asset.

In comparison, Bitcoin’s trading behavior is more akin to high-beta risk assets. Even in a generally accommodative macro environment, without broad risk sentiment support, Bitcoin’s price remains difficult to sustain upward. The market’s behavior at the end of 2025 confirms this: each rebound is quickly followed by profit-taking, leverage declines during holidays, and the US trading session often becomes a concentrated selling window.

Yield volatility and US dollar fluctuations make investors more inclined toward capital preservation, which benefits gold but puts pressure on speculative assets like Bitcoin. Moving forward, a key market focus is whether Bitcoin can hold its current technical support levels. If these are broken, the failure of this Christmas rally could be seen as an important signal that the crypto market still needs to undergo deeper adjustments before a sustained upward trend.