Lighter Airdrop: What to Expect?

Written by: thedefinvestor

Translated by: White Talk Blockchain

According to Polymarket data, the largest perpetual contract DEX without a token—Lighter—is expected to release its Token on December 29. Although its team has not publicly confirmed the exact date of the TGE (Token Generation Event), Polymarket shows a 73% probability of an airdrop on December 29, which may come from insider bets.

Additionally, Lighter’s user interface recently added an airdrop registration form, which will expire on December 26. Lighter founder Vladimir Novakovski and his team have hinted that the TGE will take place during the holiday season, and he recently changed his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture to the image below:

(Image of Lighter CEO Vladimir Novakovski’s profile picture)

Considering these factors, I believe Lighter is very likely to launch its Token LIT in the coming days (most likely December 29).

Why is Lighter so popular?

If you’ve been active in the crypto community (CT) these days, your timeline has probably been flooded with posts about Lighter and its TGE.

I think the reasons are as follows:

Lighter is the first perpetual contract DEX targeting retail traders that offers zero fees, charging only market makers and high-volume traders, which attracts a large number of traders.

Similar to Hyperliquid, Lighter has promised a massive airdrop (25% of the total token supply will be airdropped at TGE) and has built a very strong community.

Its team has raised $68 million at a $1.5 billion valuation from top-tier venture funds like Founders Fund and Robinhood.

The project has received strong support from the Ethereum community because the trading platform is built on an Ethereum L2 with verifiable order books and customizable mechanisms.

This may be the largest airdrop since Hyperliquid, and the market’s expectations are very high. As of the forecast, its Token LIT’s FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) in pre-market trading is $3.5 billion, which corresponds to approximately $900 million in total airdrop allocation (25% of supply).

What is the forecast for valuation on TGE day?

As mentioned earlier, although it is quite likely, the exact timing of Lighter’s token issuance on December 29 has not been fully confirmed. However, I would like to share my thoughts on the TGE.

Additionally, I appreciate that the Lighter team announced months ago that the TGE would occur in 2025. It now seems they plan to keep their promise, unlike many other projects that keep delaying token launches.

On the other hand, the current market situation is very poor. Even new tokens like MON (Monad) have performed poorly; a month after TGE, MON’s price has already fallen below its ICO price.

Therefore, I estimate that the FDV of Lighter’s Token will mostly fall within the range of $2 billion to $3.5 billion, and there will definitely be excitement within the first 24 hours after TGE. Ultimately, if trading volume does not significantly rebound after TGE and Bitcoin performs reasonably well, LIT might rise in the days following.

Regarding Lighter points, here is the expected airdrop limit based on your points (this valuation table is from October 3):

(Screenshot of Trevor Flipper’s post from October 3)

Most people in the crypto community (CT) seem to have higher valuation expectations for Lighter’s TGE than I do, but I believe there will be significant selling pressure from airdrop “sharks” within the first 24 hours, and unfortunately, the market environment is not ideal.

So, even if the FDV is between $2 billion and $3.5 billion, this airdrop will still be a global opportunity for early traders. If the FDV ends up higher, that would be even better.

Perpetual contract DEXs without tokens are still one of the most worthwhile airdrop opportunities currently available.

If you participated in the lighter discussion, congratulations—get ready to receive your airdrop, because you deserve it.