The Christmas holiday liquidity dried up, with Bitcoin stuck at $87,000 and unable to break through. However, on-chain and institutional movements indicate that 2026 may officially enter the “Institutional Era.”
(Background: Gemini predicts: Bitcoin returns will be negative in 2026, sovereign countries may start buying Bitcoin)
(Additional context: Does Bitcoin have a Christmas rally? Past 10 years of BTC historical data tell you)

Table of Contents

• Golden Tienboer: liquidity and options come together
• A 30% correction
• ETF speaks: the “Institutional Era” takes shape
• Boring Christmas, perhaps the last discount?

Merry Christmas! But the crypto market’s Christmas rally doesn’t seem to have launched this year. Bitcoin (BTC) hovers between $87,000 and $88,000, Ethereum (ETH) drops below $2,900, with candlesticks resembling a continuously extending channel. Holiday liquidity dried up, December 26 options expiration pressure, plus leverage unwinding after surging to $126,000 in October, create a low-volatility Christmas scene.

Golden Tienboer: liquidity and options come together

BTC has been trapped in the $86,500 to $89,000 range for the past three days. Western markets are entering the Christmas holiday, most market makers are on vacation, and trading depth has instantly shrunk. On the other hand, December 26 and the end-of-December two large options expirations are approaching, with both longs and shorts near equilibrium, leading to no one willing to push the market early, resulting in the lowest trading volume in half a year.

On-chain data is even quieter, active addresses down 22% from October highs, but long-term holders continue to increase their positions. However, be aware that this “cold on the surface, hot underlying” structure may signal the start of the next trend.

A 30% correction

From the $126,000 high, Bitcoin has fallen about 30%. Historically, crypto bull markets typically experience a 25% to 35% correction, used to clear high leverage and short-term positions.

We won’t say the bull market is still ongoing; in fact, the crypto bull-bear cycle has already begun to spark debate. Meanwhile, crypto asset management firm Bitwise argues that this decline has washed out the overpricing of the “Trump policy benefits” in October and brought the funding rates in the futures market back to neutral. In an environment free of leverage interference, spot buying power begins to have a greater impact on prices.

ETF speaks: the “Institutional Era” takes shape

The real change is brewing in traditional financial products. By 2026, just one Bitcoin ETF could absorb more than the entire year’s new supply. We are stepping into the Institutional Era, where ETFs will have a larger appetite than miners’ output—this is about asset allocation, not retail frenzy.

Grayscale’s research report also presents a similar view, believing that hedging demand, stablecoins, and integration with traditional finance, along with the implementation of the US “CLARITY Act,” could push Bitcoin into the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The core behind these forecasts is the same: regulatory channels opening, allowing long-term capital to enter on a large scale. At least after stock spillovers, crypto assets have been prioritized in asset allocation.

Boring Christmas, perhaps the last discount?

When short-term traders leave out of boredom, volatility decreases, indicating Bitcoin is moving further away from speculation and more towards mature assets. For those seeking to double their money, this is bad news; for long-term capital, it means entry costs are more controllable.

If Bitwise and Grayscale’s strategies come true, the quiet period around Christmas 2025 will be remembered as the “last clearance before institutional takeover.”

Bitcoin at $87,000 may lack passion, but it offers a chance for true long-term holders to buy in.

This is not investment advice.