After the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the crypto market remains in a volatile range. Institutions and traders have differing views on the future market; some are optimistic about the first half of 2026, some expect short-term fluctuations, and others believe there may be a further dip. (Previous Summary: Michael Saylor once again calls for Bitcoin to reach one million, ten million dollars: waiting for the day when Strategy controls 5% and 7% of the total BTC supply) (Background information: Bitcoin community warns: Quantum defense upgrades may take five to ten years to respond)

Table of Contents

• Wintermute trader: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $86,000 to $92,000.
• IOSG Founding Partner: Optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026
• Data Analyst Murphy: On-chain data sentiment is being repaired
• Santiment founder: Bitcoin still has the potential to dip to around 75000 USD.

Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policies have been implemented, the crypto market is still in a state of oscillation and hovering, with the fear and greed index struggling to climb but still below 30. After the ups and downs following this year's black swan event, how do market traders and institutions view the future trend of the market?

Wintermute trader: Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $86,000 to $92,000.

Wintermute trading strategist Jasper De Maere believes in an interview with CoinDesk that Bitcoin may fluctuate in a range between $86,000 and $92,000. Jasper reminds that it is currently not advisable to overinterpret technical indicators and anticipates that due to year-end portfolio adjustments and tax factors, there will be more profit-taking behavior in the next two weeks. “People are closing positions for a brief rest… short-term rebounds will soon be sold off.”

He expects that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate sideways until a new catalyst appears, one of which may be the large options expiration in late December. Although Jasper has not asserted that the market has bottomed out, he stated that the market has begun to show signs of bottoming. “I feel that we are at the maximum pain point. In the short term, I definitely think the market is oversold.”

IOSG Founding Partner: Optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026.

Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, posted on social media stating, "2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market, as well as the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. Looking back at the 2025 crypto market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data indicating institutional holdings at 24% and retail exiting at 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue accumulating positions at high levels not because of price, but because of the cycle. Retail is selling while institutions are buying. Currently, it is not the peak of a bull market, but rather a period of institutional accumulation.

There will be a mid-term election in November 2026. The historical pattern is that policies precede election years, so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period, with institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 has political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, there are still risks such as The Federal Reserve (FED) policies, a strong dollar, possible delays in market structural legislation, LTH potentially continuing to sell, and uncertainty in the mid-term election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position.

– Short term (3-6 months): $87,000 - $95,000 range fluctuation, institutions continue to accumulate positions. – Mid-term (2026 First half of ): Driven by both policy and institutions, target 120,000 - 150,000 dollars

• Long-term (2026 second half ): Increased volatility, watch election results and policy continuity.

This is not the peak of the cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. The year 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process of the crypto market. Despite BTC's annual returns being negative, ETF investors demonstrate strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality, it features: the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices dipped by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of price increases. When the market structure fundamentally changes, the old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be reconstructed.

$1 Galaxy Digital Research Director: BTC may still reach new highs in 2026

Alex Thorn, the research director at Galaxy Digital, stated, "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The trend in 2026 is too chaotic to predict, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to set a new historical high in 2026. Currently, the pricing provided by the options market shows that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is nearly equal; and by the end of 2026, the probability of dipping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is also close. Such a wide price range reflects the market's high uncertainty regarding the medium to short-term outlook.

Data analyst Murphy: On-chain data sentiment is recovering.

Data analyst Murphy stated that on-chain data observed signs of sentiment recovery. The number of addresses that transitioned from “holding BTC” to “completely liquidating” surged from November 13 to 25, during which the price of BTC dropped at the fastest rate and to the greatest extent. The large number of liquidating addresses also reflects the panic and pessimism in the market sentiment.

However, during the period from December 1 to 18, BTC repeatedly dipped, and the number of clearing addresses began to decrease, which completely aligns with the bullish behavior and sentiment changes displayed in the futures market.

Santiment Founder: Bitcoin still has the potential to dip to around 75000 US dollars.

The founder of the crypto market analysis firm Santiment, Maksim Balashevich, stated that social media has not yet shown sufficient panic sentiment to confirm that the market has bottomed out, and Bitcoin may still drop to around $75,000, indicating that there is still about a 14.77% downside potential from the current price level. Balashevich explained that many users remain optimistic that the downtrend will reverse in the short term, but this usually does not happen when a true market bottom is formed.