Why did the rally in tech stocks fail to boost Bitcoin? The market focuses on macro factors and the key support level of $83,000.

Recent market data shows that Bitcoin prices have continued to underperform compared to tech stocks and the overall US stock market. After the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish rate cut, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell about 1.7%, while Bitcoin’s decline during the same period widened to 2.4%, indicating that its short-term volatility remains higher than that of traditional risk assets.

In terms of medium-term performance, this gap becomes even more pronounced. Since the second half of 2025, the Nasdaq index components have risen approximately 17% overall, while Bitcoin has declined about 15% over the past six months. This contrasts with the market’s long-term expectation of Bitcoin as a “high-beta tech asset,” and also means that the returns from allocating to the Nasdaq index this year have significantly outperformed those from allocating to Bitcoin.

Last week, Bitcoin and Nasdaq showed a clear decoupling, with prices falling from $94,000 to below $90,000, reflecting a cautious risk appetite ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. On the macro level, investors are closely watching upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the subsequent Bank of Japan rate decision, both of which are seen as key variables influencing short-term crypto market sentiment.

However, Glassnode founder believes that the market has already fully priced in the Bank of Japan’s rate hike expectations, and the real risk lies in whether the central bank will signal a more hawkish forward guidance. Historical data shows that during the Bank of Japan’s rate hike cycles, Bitcoin has experienced corrections of 20% to 30%, so related policy developments should not be ignored. Glassnode estimates that Bitcoin is currently in a “bottoming phase,” with prices likely to test the $85,500 to $87,000 range repeatedly this week.

On-chain data indicates that around $83,000 is an important technical and psychological support level, close to the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Some analysts believe that as long as this support level is not effectively broken, a subsequent rebound remains plausible.

Although Bitcoin has significantly lagged behind tech stocks in the short term, institutional views are not entirely pessimistic. Glassnode points out that if small-cap stocks remain stable, Bitcoin still has room to regain strength. Meanwhile, Laser Digital states that after macroeconomic data releases, 2026 could become an important year for crypto assets to re-attract risk capital. A new round of liquidity environment improvements is expected to create more favorable conditions for Bitcoin and other risk assets.