Today, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data will be officially released. The market expects PCE and core PCE data for September to remain roughly in line with last month. The overall PCE inflation rate is expected to edge up slightly to 2.8%. This data will directly impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decisions and future economic forecasts, especially in the context of expiring cryptocurrency options, where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets are expected to experience volatility.
Wall Street expects September PCE inflation to remain “sticky,” with core PCE annual growth at 2.9%. Market analysts believe that if this month’s data comes in below expectations, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut will increase. The Fed’s stance is particularly crucial, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing the market assigns an 87% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut in December, bringing the target rate down to the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Bitcoin’s price remains above $92,000 amid optimism over a Fed rate cut. Expert analysis suggests that if the $91,500 support level holds, Bitcoin could rebound to $100,000. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently relatively subdued, with derivatives trading volume down 20% and the total amount of open interest in Bitcoin futures seeing a slight decline, as the market awaits further guidance from the Fed.
Analysts believe that if Bitcoin falls below its current support level, it may test the $85,000 mark and form a double bottom pattern. However, if the current support remains firm, Bitcoin could see a rebound in the coming days. Participants in the crypto market will continue to closely monitor the Fed’s December FOMC meeting and future economic policy developments.
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