Michael Saylor's strategy (MSTR) is projected not to require selling any Bitcoin held to pay off debts during the next major market downturn, according to analyst Willy Woo.
“The possibility of MSTR being liquidated in the upcoming bear market? I don't think so,” Willy Woo shared on social media X.
Currently, most of Strategy's debt consists of high-yield convertible bonds. This company has the option to pay off the conversions at maturity in cash, common stock, or a combination of both.
Strategy to withstand liquidation risks in a bear market
On September 15, 2027, when the bond's sell option matures, Strategy will face a debt of approximately 1.01 billion USD. According to Woo's analysis, to avoid having to sell Bitcoin to pay off this debt, Strategy's stock price needs to remain above 183.19 USD.
This price corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately 91,502 USD, based on the assumption that the net asset value (mNAV) is 1.
The analyst The Bitcoin Therapist also stated that, “Bitcoin will have to perform very poorly” in the next market downturn for the strategy to start selling Bitcoin.
“It must be a prolonged and severe bear market to lead to the liquidation of Strategy's assets,” he added. According to data from the Saylor Tracker, Strategy is currently holding approximately 641,205 Bitcoin, with a total value of around 64 billion USD at the time of announcement.
On Tuesday's trading session, Strategy's stock closed at its lowest level in seven months, down nearly 6.7% to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past seven days, according to data from.
The ability to “partially liquidate” may still occur
Although not expecting liquidation to occur in the upcoming bear market, Willy Woo still warns that this could very well happen if Bitcoin does not experience strong growth in the anticipated bull market cycle in 2028.
“Ironically, Strategy's ability to liquidate part of its assets will arise if the price of BTC does not increase fast enough in the bull market expected in 2028,” Willy Woo commented.
Some industry leaders, such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin will reach a price of 1 million USD by 2030.
Mr. Teacher
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