Over half of the alts have fallen more than 60%! Can the ETF craze turn the tide?

According to Arkham data, over half of the alts market is in distress, with the number of alts that have fallen more than 60% greater than those that have risen. More than 300 encryption assets, including dogwifhat (WIF) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), have declined by 30% to 60% over the past year. Although the macro backdrop has improved in the second quarter of 2025, the October flash crash and geopolitical friction have dampened risk appetite. The market is pinning hopes on ETF speculation, however, after the debut of the Solana (SOL) ETF, prices remain trapped in consolidation, indicating that institutional capital inflows have not effectively boosted market sentiment.

Altcoin Market Predicament: Over Half of Assets in Deep Correction

Against the backdrop of increased volatility in the Bitcoin market, the performance of the altcoin sector has been even more dismal, with the sharp drop in the ASI index reflecting widespread bearish sentiment.

• Deep Loss: Arkham data shows that over 300 types of encryption assets, represented by WIF and SHIB, have fallen by 30% to 60% in the past year.
• Index crash: the altseason index (ASI) plummeted in the first half of 2025, falling from nearly 90% to about 10%, marking a complete reversal of the gains made in 2024.
• Bearish drivers: This bearish trend was initially driven by the tariff war, which was then exacerbated by the October flash crash and the China-U.S. tariff conflict. Although the tariff issue has now been resolved, the losses still suppress risk appetite.
• Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin's market dominance is currently solidified at around 60%, indicating that altcoins still have room for growth, but the inflow of funds is relatively limited.

ETF Effect Observation: SOL Fund Inflows Hit Record, But Price Reaction is Tepid

The market views the hype around ETFs as a potential catalyst to reverse the downward trend of altcoins; however, the price movements of the leading ETF candidates have failed to synchronize with the inflow of institutional funds.

• SOL ETF records inflow: Solana (SOL) ETF broke records during its debut week, attracting a large amount of funds.
• Price consolidation: Despite record inflows of institutional capital, the price of SOL is still consolidating between $180 and $200, failing to achieve meaningful rises.
• XRP struggles: XRP has also been struggling to stay below $2.7 before the wave of ETF approvals.
• Options market: The options data for SOL and XRP shows a neutral to bullish sentiment recently, but the spot market still lacks momentum.

Counter-Trend Accumulation: Highlight Assets in Non-ETF Tracks

In the context of a general fall and the delayed effect of ETFs, some non-ETF related alts are showing signs of institutional fund accumulation.

• LINK Attention: Chainlink (LINK) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) are altcoins worth paying attention to, as they have seen significant accumulation driven by outflows from mainstream CEX, which is often considered a bullish signal.
• Accumulation Drive: This counter-trend accumulation indicates that long-term investors and whales are still looking for opportunities in undervalued assets, despite the short-term market sentiment being sluggish.

Conclusion

The deep corrections of more than half of the alts reflect an extreme caution in market risk appetite. While the strong institutional interest in ETF concept coins like Solana and XRP provides long-term hope, the inflow of institutional funds has not yet effectively translated into momentum for spot prices in the short term. Whether the altcoin market can achieve a meaningful recovery will depend on the improvement of broader market sentiment and whether Bitcoin's dominance can leave enough room for growth for the alts.