Saylor's strategy is expected to be included in the S&P 500 after the Q3 earnings report.

Despite the fall in stock prices and the slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, Strategy – the company that holds the largest amount of Bitcoin in the world – is still projected to have a 70% chance of being included in the S&P 500 index before the end of 2025, according to the insights of the cryptocurrency market research firm 10X Research.

Next Thursday, Strategy will announce its financial report for Q3/2025, expected to record a profit of up to 3.8 billion USD thanks to the revaluation of the fair value of the amount of Bitcoin held by the company.

According to the Wednesday report from 10X Research, if the Strategy continues to maintain profits this quarter, the likelihood of the company's stock being added to the S&P 500 on December 19 is about 60%-70%.

“The moment of surrender always makes us feel like everything has ended – until it quietly marks a new beginning,” the report noted. “The earnings report on October 30 could ignite a wave of speculation about the decision to include in the S&P 500 on December 5 – a scenario we assess with a probability of around 70%.”

Although investor sentiment towards Strategy stocks is currently quite negative, 10X Research believes that the upcoming earnings report will serve as a “clear catalyst” for the recovery of this stock.

Source: 10x Research## Valuation pressure and the slowdown of Bitcoin

This positive forecast comes in the context of many concerns about the sustainability of digital asset treasury (DATs), as many companies have witnessed net asset values on the market (mNAV) fall below critical thresholds this year.

The mNAV ratio reflects the correlation between the value of the enterprise and the value of the digital asset portfolio owned by the company. When mNAV exceeds the threshold of 1, the enterprise can raise additional capital by issuing new shares to increase the amount of digital assets. Conversely, if mNAV is below 1, expanding capital and accumulating assets will face many difficulties.

Many DATs have fallen into a state of mNAV below the safe threshold, almost locking their ability to raise funds for additional digital asset purchases. These companies include Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).

The net asset value (mNAV) of digital asset investment funds has faced significant pressure since June | Source: Standard Chartered## Market liquidity will return at this “time” in the cycle.

In the past month, the Strategy has significantly reduced its Bitcoin purchasing rate, adding only 778 BTC to its portfolio – the lowest level in many months, down 78% from the 3,526 BTC in September.

Although the speed of buying Bitcoin has slowed down and the market has just gone through a deep correction, 10X Research believes this could be the “critical moment” in the cryptocurrency market cycle, when liquidity returns and major fluctuations begin to appear.

“When most of the NAV spread has been eliminated – causing a loss of up to 18 billion USD for investors – and market volatility begins to rise again, the risk-reward dynamic is no longer about defending against a bearish trend, but rather about preparing for the next phase.”

Despite the positive outlook, Strategy currently only receives a credit rating of “B-” from S&P Global Ratings, categorized as speculative and not investment-grade – often referred to as “junk bonds,” although S&P still views the company's stock price outlook as positive.

Notably, this is the first time a company focused on digital assets like Bitcoin has received a rating from S&P Global, setting a new precedent for traditional financial institutions when considering businesses operating in the encryption field.

Mr. Teacher