3 reasons why XRP's time below 3 dollars may not last long

After surpassing the threshold of $3 on October 2, XRP has struggled to maintain its upward momentum, falling to $2.84 on Tuesday. The daily close below this important psychological level not only marks the loss of support from the (EMA) 50-period moving average but also indicates weakness in the short term. However, some structural indicators and on-chain data suggest that XRP's current difficulties may only be temporary, with many stimulating factors creating conditions for a potential bounce back in the coming weeks.

XRP monthly chart | Source: TradingView## ETF approval could open the floodgates for institutional money

October could become a decisive moment for XRP as the (SEC) is nearing the final deadline for 16 cryptocurrency ETF applications, including several applications for spot XRP ETFs expected to be submitted from October 18 to October 25. The regulatory environment has seen significant changes since the SEC approved new general listing standards in September 2025, streamlining the approval process for exchange-traded products based on commodities.

All 11 XRP ETF proposals have passed the standard listing deadline, opening up the possibility of simultaneous approval. If approved, analysts estimate that these ETFs could attract between 3 billion and 8 billion dollars in capital flow from institutions, equivalent to the early stage of Bitcoin and Ether ETF adoption.

Data from CoinShares also reinforces this optimism, showing that XRP investment products attracted $220 million in inflows last week, bringing total inflows year-to-date to $1.8 billion and assets under management to $3.2 billion.

The flow of XRP ETP by asset | Source: CoinShares## Accumulation by whales offsets the bearish sentiment of retail investors

According to a report by Coinphoton, the optimistic/pessimistic sentiment ratio of XRP has fallen below 1.0, indicating that the number of negative comments currently exceeds positive comments on social media platforms. History shows that periods of “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) among retail investors often occur before strong rebounds, as capitulation often marks the market bottom.

In this context, large investors have taken advantage of this weakness. Over the past three days, whales have accumulated 55 million XRP worth nearly $1.1 billion. On-chain data also shows that the Net Holder Position Change has remained positive since August, indicating continuous accumulation around the $3 level.

Change in net position of XRP holders | Source: Glassnode## Traders target growth potential up to $5

Despite the short term consolidation, the price structure of XRP still maintains historical strength. It is currently holding the highest weekly and monthly closing levels since surpassing the highs of 2017.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency analyst EtherNasyonal stated that the seven-and-a-half-year downtrend channel of XRP against Bitcoin was broken at the end of 2024, marking a significant structural shift, with continuous accumulation throughout the past year.

The market strength of XRP/BTC according to EtherNaysonal | Source: XMThe current model resembles a bullish market fractal that could yield profits of 60% to 85% if XRP decisively breaks above $3.30. Trader Dentoshi has observed a similar pattern, reasoning that a prolonged consolidation or base could lead to a larger breakout.

XRP fractal model | Source: Dentoshi/X However, trader Peter Brandt notes that a daily close below $2.65 could be a defining point for XRP. This would lead to the confirmation of a descending triangle pattern. Brandt stated:

Peter Brandt's analysis of XRP | Source: X“If it closes below $2.68743 ( then I will become a hater), it should fall to $2.22163.”

Mr. Giáo