Bitcoin's (BTC) Rare Signal Returns and History Points to 40% Surge

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a golden cross on the daily MACD printed while short-term MVRV bottomed near $107,000.

This event, which occurred just weeks ago, has only happened three times in the current cycle, and each time marked significant local bottoms.

Golden Cross + MVRV Bottom

In an update on X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Mr. Wall Street explained that similar signals popped up at $76,000 during tariff fears, around $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind, and in the $16,000-$18,000 zone after the FTX collapse.

The latest occurrence is considered even more powerful, since the MACD cross emerged in negative territory on the 1D timeframe, which is a historically rare condition that often precedes 30-40% upside moves. Based on past performance, the implication is a potential rally toward the $140,000-$150,000 range.

An important debate now is how Bitcoin might reach that target. Two main scenarios are in play. The first indicates the bottom is already in, and a reversal is unfolding as the market moves higher from $107,000 levels. The second scenario maps out a rejection near $120,000, followed by a sweep of monthly lows before a bullish divergence in RSI points to a surge toward $140,000.

Such a shakeout would follow the pattern of prior cycle behavior, frustrating traders who are chasing corrections before driving the next leg up. This week’s FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments are being speculated to be critical in determining which path Bitcoin takes.

The analyst also dismissed bearish claims circulating on social media that liquidity favors the downside and argued instead that a $50,000 move upward would liquidate far more short positions than an equivalent move lower.

He also pushed back against macroeconomic concerns raised by skeptics, who have noted that Bitcoin has repeatedly defied weak global conditions. For example, in early 2023, despite widespread economic pessimism, Bitcoin doubled from $16,000 to $32,000 within a single quarter.

For now, traders who entered long positions at $107,000-$108,000 are holding firm, while some appear prepared to add more if a short-term correction occurs. The analyst warned that such expectations for a correction could paradoxically fuel a short squeeze and end up accelerating Bitcoin’s next surge.

As such, if history repeats, bearish sentiment may quickly flip to euphoria, which could potentially set the stage for a cycle top.

“Soon enough the same people who are currently chasing the next large correction will also be chasing the leg up and that’s exactly when we will see peak euphoria of cycle top. The exact same moment I dump all my bags.”

BTC Bull Run Isn’t Over

A similar view was shared by Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive.xyz. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Dawson said that “the bull run’s not over” and that “Q4’s just getting started.”

“There’s been growing speculation that we’ve reached the top of this cycle, but I don’t think that’s the case. Yes, the coming weeks could bring increased volatility and some short-term pain, particularly in September, which has historically been a tough month for crypto.

On average, BTC returns -2.9% in September, largely due to natural selling pressure around the US financial year-end. We’re already seeing signs of that pressure in the data.”