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Recently, the market sentiment has undergone a major shift. The Bank of Japan's easing expectations have eased, and tech giants' earnings reports are impressive, significantly boosting investor confidence. The fear index has dropped sharply. Amid this wave of increased risk appetite, many mainstream assets are rebounding. Let's review the current technical layout one by one.
S&P 500 Index: Bottom confirmed,突破7000 points expected
Last Friday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.88%, reaching a high of 6840 points intraday. The most notable point is that the index is now firmly above the key support level of 6790 points, showing strong bullish momentum.
If the 6790-point support holds, the subsequent rebound space will open, with 6900 and even 7000 points within sight. Conversely, if the 6790-point line is broken, caution is needed for a secondary dip toward 6600 points.
Technical position reference
- Support zones: 6600, 6800, 6450 points

Recently, the New Taiwan Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate surged nearly 10%, marking the largest increase in 40 years. The main market drivers include changes in US trade policies and reduced central bank intervention space. Investors need to master short-term trading and long-term allocation strategies, and remain vigilant about risk management. The market still holds expectations for the NT Dollar's outlook, but a rational approach to volatility is necessary.

The weakening of the US dollar has become a consensus, but the truth is much more complicated than you think.
After the Federal Reserve began a rate cut cycle in September 2024, the market was filled with voices saying "the dollar will depreciate." However, judging the dollar's decline solely based on rate cuts is actually overly naive. According to the latest FOMC dot plot, the US interest rate target will be lowered to around 3% before 2026, but behind this lies a deeper logic of global capital flows—the fate of the dollar is not determined solely by rate cuts.
Understanding the USD Exchange Rate: A Barometer of the Global Economy
The USD exchange rate essentially reflects the purchasing power comparison between the dollar and other currencies. For example, EUR/USD=1.04 means 1.04 dollars can exchange for 1 euro; if EUR/USD rises to 1.09, it indicates the euro has appreciated and the dollar has depreciated.
But there's an easily overlooked point here—the movement of the dollar index depends not only on US policies but also on the euro, yen, pound, and other currencies.

By the end of 2025, the Taiwanese dollar has stabilized around 4.85 against the Japanese yen, and many people are starting to seriously consider exchanging for yen. But do you know? Exchanging 50,000 TWD through the wrong channel could cost an extra 1,500 NT. Today, we will break down the main Japanese yen exchange methods in Taiwan to help you find the most suitable solution for your needs.
Why is it worth considering exchanging yen now?
The yen is not just a "foreign currency" for travel; it also carries a more important role.
First, Japan's economy is stable, and its debt is low, making the yen one of the world's three major safe-haven currencies (the other two are the US dollar and Swiss franc). Whenever the market experiences turbulence—such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022—funds flood into the yen seeking refuge. During that week, the yen appreciated by 8%, while the stock market fell by 10%. For Taiwanese investors, holding some yen during Taiwan stock market volatility can serve as a hedge.
Secondly, the Bank of Japan has just begun to raise interest rates

The Australian dollar has depreciated by over 35% in the past decade. Although commodity prices have rebounded, it lacks sustained upward momentum due to factors such as US tariffs, interest rate differentials, and domestic economic weakness. Investors should pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy, China's economic outlook, and the US dollar trend to assess the future direction of the AUD. Short-term fluctuations are possible, but long-term risks include global economic uncertainties.

Silver has officially entered the price discovery phase. From being mocked as "the poor man's gold" to suddenly taking off this year due to the immediate demand from the photovoltaic industry, this precious metal has become the most explosive asset in the commodity market. Facing a once-in-a-decade super bull market, the core question for investors is: what is the most suitable way to make money? Which tools can maximize profit potential?
To answer this question, we first need to understand why silver is so strong in 2025.
The real logic behind the silver bull market: supply and demand imbalance + industrial demand
Don't be fooled by the old saying "gold price rise drives silver price." The explosion of silver this year is fundamentally a storm triggered by structural supply shortages.
The global photovoltaic industry’s appetite for silver is growing increasingly larger. By 2025, it is expected that new photovoltaic installations will consume about 6,000 tons of silver. Coupled with the continued demand expansion in new energy vehicles and the semiconductor sector, silver has evolved from a financial hedging tool into a solid industrial asset.

The upcoming central bank decision week, multiple currencies face significant volatility
This week, the foreign exchange market enters a critical decision period. The interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank on December 18 and the Bank of Japan on December 19 will profoundly influence the next phase of the US dollar, euro, and yen trends. Last week, the US dollar index retraced 0.60%, while the euro and pound rose by 0.84% and 0.34% respectively, and the yen slightly declined by 0.29%—these fluctuations are driven by market re-pricing of multiple central banks' policy expectations.
Federal Reserve signals dovish stance, how will the European Central Bank respond?
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled but announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, purchasing $40 billion of short-term government bonds monthly. This move is widely interpreted as a quantitative easing signal. Coupled with Powell's dovish tone in his speech, the US dollar came under pressure and declined. More notably, the latest dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates only once by 2026, and

Why must investors pay attention to the US Dollar Index?
Have you noticed that whenever you hear "US dollar appreciation" or "US dollar strengthening," the stock market starts to fluctuate, and capital flows change accordingly? This is no coincidence.
The US Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is like a barometer for the global financial markets. It’s not just a simple exchange rate; it’s an aggregate indicator that reflects the strength of the US dollar relative to other major international currencies. For investors in Taiwan, whether you invest in US stocks, gold, or hold US dollar assets, it’s essential to closely monitor the US Dollar Index trend.
Why? Because the strength or weakness of the US dollar directly determines whether your investment returns can be realized as expected.
What is the essence of the US Dollar Index: What exactly does it measure?
The US Dollar Index tracks the exchange rate changes of the US dollar against six major currencies. These six currencies are:
- Euro (EUR): accounting for 57.6% (largest weight)
- Japanese Yen (JPY): accounting for 13

The Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% last Friday, reaching a new high since 1995. However, the yen exhibited an abnormal performance contrary to the rate hike—USD/JPY surged straight to 157.4. Behind this classic "selling the facts" market behavior lies the liquidity dilemma of the global financial system.
Why is the market ignoring the rate hike signals?
Typically, a rate hike would strengthen the expectation of currency appreciation, but the yen's inverse movement reflects a harsh reality: the market simply does not believe the hawkish commitments of the Bank of Japan.
According to tracking data from Morgan Stanley, there are still up to $500 billion in unclosed yen arbitrage trades within the global financial system. These funds borrow yen (interest rate only 0.75%), then shift into U.S. tech stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies, enjoying a yield differential bonus of up to 3.75% between Japan and the U.S.
In the absence of specific rate hike pathways announced by BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo, the market

The British Pound, as one of the four major global trading currencies, accounts for approximately 13% of daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market. However, its performance over the past decade has been tumultuous. Since the Bank of England's aggressive interest rate cuts in 2008, the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen from a historic high of 2 dollars to a low of 1.03 dollars in 2022, nearly halving. Under the dual shocks of Brexit and economic difficulties, many investors once turned bearish on the pound.
However, entering 2025, with the accelerating trend of de-dollarization worldwide and the increasing clarity of the market’s expectation for the US to enter a rate-cutting cycle, the trading logic of the pound has undergone a significant shift. As of the beginning of the year, the GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuated around 1.26, and the market has begun to reassess the investment value of this traditional safe-haven currency.
Core Factors Influencing the GBP Exchange Rate
GBP (British Pound), as the official currency of the United Kingdom, is driven by multiple factors. Understanding these factors is essential for grasping trading opportunities in the pound.

New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) strength breaks through the important psychological barrier of 30 yuan, and this wave of appreciation has become a market focus. In just two trading days, the NTD has surged nearly 10%, setting multiple historical records and triggering astonishing trading volume in the foreign exchange market. From a month ago, when the market was worried about the NTD breaking below 35 yuan, to now, a single-day surge of 5% reaching a 40-year high, the rapid change in situation is astonishing. Where will the NTD exchange rate go? Is this appreciation a short-term fluctuation or the beginning of a long-term trend?
Three-layer analysis of the factors behind the NTD appreciation
Central bank policy dilemma becomes a key variable
On May 2nd, the day the NTD soared in a single day, the central bank's response drew market attention. Although the central bank issued a statement attributing the volatility to "market expectations that the US may require trade partners' currencies to appreciate," it did not directly address the most pressing concern in the market: whether the US-Taiwan tariff negotiations involve exchange rate provisions.
The Trump administration explicitly listed "currency intervention" as a focus of review, which made the central bank...

The Core Concept of Leverage Trading
Leverage investment is a trading strategy that amplifies investment positions by borrowing funds. In simple terms, investors do not need to pay the full amount upfront; they only need to prepare a portion of the capital as margin to control a larger asset. This approach is derived from the physics principle of leverage — using a small force to move a larger object.
In the investment market, leverage trading works as follows: investors provide a margin, and the broker or trading platform extends credit based on this amount. For example, with 10x leverage, an investor only needs to put in 1,000 yuan as margin to trade assets worth 10,000 yuan. When market trends are favorable, this method can multiply returns; conversely, losses are also magnified accordingly.
Margin and leverage are two related but distinct concepts. Margin is the funds that an investor must pledge to open a position, while leverage is based on this margin, allowing the trader to control a larger position.

The Renminbi enters a new appreciation cycle, reaching a nearly 14-month high at the end of the year
The trend of the Renminbi exchange rate in 2025 shows a clear turning point. Driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts at the end of the year, the USD to Renminbi exchange rate broke through the 7.05 level, then continued to rise to 7.0404, hitting a new high in nearly 14 months. This shift is highly significant—the three-year period of continuous depreciation against the US dollar since 2022 has officially ended.
Looking back at the year's performance, the Renminbi fluctuated within a range against the US dollar, with the onshore market oscillating between 7.04 and 7.3, appreciating approximately 3% over the year; the offshore market experienced greater volatility, moving between 7.02 and 7.4. Behind this resilience are subtle changes faced by the Chinese currency—easing external trade conditions and adjustments in internal economic expectations—both contributing to the Renminbi's bottoming out and rebound.
Three major supporting factors drive the Chinese currency toward strength
Many international investment banks

Head and shoulders is a technical analysis pattern indicating a potential market reversal. It consists of the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, and traders should watch for a break of the neckline as a signal to exit. An inverse head and shoulders is a bottom pattern, similar but in the opposite direction, offering a buying opportunity. Successful trading requires cautious risk management, combining fundamental analysis, and avoiding blind reliance on the pattern.

Dongguan factory shutdowns are rewriting the global automotive chip landscape. The Chinese factory of Dutch semiconductor giant Nexperia has suspended production due to geopolitical and export control issues. This critical supplier of MCUs, driver ICs, and power semiconductors has come to a halt, affecting the entire automotive supply chain. Nissan is reducing production by approximately 1,200 vehicles per month, Honda's capacity for some models in Asia has decreased by 15–20%, and Bosch's German factory is reducing daily component output by 3,500–4,000 sets. The seemingly microscopic chip shortage is evolving into a systemic risk for global capital markets.
The Hidden Impact of Low-End Chips
Automotive MCUs and ABS brake system chips, priced at only $1–3 each, have shown astonishing industry influence after Nexperia's shutdown. Car manufacturing adopts a just-in-time model, and reliance on a few suppliers makes the production chain extremely sensitive to single-point disruptions. A cheap ECU

Busy professionals want to manage their finances but don't have time to research? Or are you feeling confused about investment analysis? Actually, there is a professional and relatively risk-controlled way of managing finances—that is, mutual fund investment. This article will guide you through the basics, profit principles, and practical allocation to give you a comprehensive understanding of mutual fund investing.
What exactly is a mutual fund?
A mutual fund, officially known as a securities investment fund, is an investment tool issued by banks or brokerages that pools investors' funds and is managed by a fund manager, with custody provided by a fund custodian. In simple terms, it is a collective investment method where investors entrust their money to a professional team for operation, sharing profits and risks.
Depending on the investment targets, mutual funds can be mainly divided into five categories:
- Money Market Funds: Invest in short-term bonds and commercial paper
- Bond Funds: Focus on fixed income instruments such as government bonds, treasury bonds, and corporate bonds
- Stock Funds: Invest in stocks

The US dollar retraces from high levels as risk indicators tighten
The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has put pressure on the dollar. US Q3 GDP growth rate preliminary figures reached 4.3% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years; core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, in line with market expectations. Strong economic data should support a stronger dollar, but it was countered by pressure from Trump on Fed policies.
The US Dollar Index fell 0.37% on Tuesday (December 23), touching a low of 97.74, forming a two-day decline. More concerning is that the dollar index has effectively broken below the key support level of 98.0, hitting a new two-and-a-half-month low. Liquidity contraction during the Christmas holiday further amplifies short-term volatility risks. From a technical perspective, if the dollar index cannot hold above 98.0, downside potential will open, and risk indicators suggest the 95.2 level may be vulnerable.
Support levels: 96.5, 95

Is it worth exchanging for Japanese Yen now? Check out this number
As of December 10, 2025, the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) to Japanese Yen (JPY) reached 4.85, up approximately 8.7% from 4.46 at the beginning of the year. In other words, if you exchanged JPY at the start of the year, you would have gained quite a bit from the exchange rate difference now. But the question is— is it really worth it now?
The answer is: you need to operate in batches. The JPY market is highly volatile, with the US interest rate cut cycle beginning, and the Bank of Japan on the verge of raising interest rates (expected to rise to 0.75% in December). USD/JPY has fallen from 160 at the start of the year to 154.58, and may rebound to 155 in the short term. Medium to long-term forecasts suggest it will fall below 150. For investors, entering in batches can help spread the exchange rate risk.
Why do Taiwanese people want to exchange for JPY? It’s not just for traveling
Travel, living, long-term residence
Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido—Japan’s cash culture is deeply ingrained—credit card penetration is only 60%, and most stores only accept cash.