#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Iran-U.S. Negotiations Fail Again: How Will the Market Perform Next Week?

Key Summary: On April 12th local time, after 21 hours of negotiations, Iran and the U.S. failed to reach any agreement. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz is bleak, and with the ceasefire agreement expiring on April 21st, geopolitical risk premiums will continue to support oil prices, and risk aversion sentiment may rise again.

Core Disputes in the Negotiation Breakdown
The negotiations took place in Islamabad, Pakistan, with U.S. Vice President Vance representing, and after over 21 hours of deadlock, both sides declared failure. Three major core conflicts remain unresolved:

1 Control of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran is using the world's busiest oil transit route as a key bargaining chip, with current oil flow through the strait at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. The U.S. demands immediate full reopening, while Iran insists on maintaining dominance.
2 Red Lines on Nuclear Issues: Iran refuses to give up uranium enrichment capabilities, insisting on its right to peaceful nuclear energy; the U.S. demands Iran completely halt nuclear development, with both sides holding firm positions.
3 Sanctions and Compensation: Iran demands U.S. military withdrawal, war reparations, and full lifting of sanctions; the U.S. requires Iran to end its regional proxy activities, with a large gap between the conditions.

Next Week’s Three Major Scenario Analyses
Scenario 1: Ceasefire Extension (Moderate Probability): Both sides agree to extend the ceasefire expiring on April 21st and continue negotiations. Market risk appetite temporarily recovers, and oil prices slightly decline.
Scenario 2: Continued Standoff (Higher Probability): Maintain the current fragile ceasefire but without substantive progress in negotiations. Geopolitical risk premiums persist, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and safe-haven assets are in demand.
Scenario 3: Conflict Resumption (Possible Probability): Ceasefire breaks down after April 21st, with escalation of military actions. Oil prices may break through $100 per barrel, global stock markets come under pressure, and gold, USD, and U.S. Treasuries strengthen across the board.

Key Observation Points: Two U.S. destroyers have entered the Persian Gulf, Pakistani military forces have arrived at the Saudi Air Force Base, and regional military deployments are intensifying.
Market Impact Pathways
Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are hard to dissipate. WTI spot price on April 10th was $96.57/barrel, significantly up from pre-conflict levels. Negotiation failure means the Strait’s reopening remains unlikely, and supply tensions will continue.

Next Week Outlook: Oil prices will fluctuate between “conflict escalation” and “restart negotiations” anticipation.
If ceasefire breaks down, the $100/barrel level is not out of reach.
Gold: Safe-haven demand heats up again
SHFE gold closing price on April 10th was 1,048.36 yuan/gram, down from the mid-March high of 1,133 yuan, but after negotiation failure, safe-haven funds may flow back in. London gold spot price is about $4,862 per ounce, in a high-range zone historically.
Global Stock Markets: Risk appetite under pressure
Geopolitical uncertainties suppress investor risk appetite, rising energy prices boost inflation expectations, and central bank monetary policy space is constrained.
Sector Divergence: Energy and defense benefit; airlines, transportation, and consumer sectors face pressure.
Inflation Transmission Chain: The secondary shocks cannot be ignored. A Morgan Stanley report points out that rising energy prices will impact the global economy through three pathways:
Direct Effect: Rising gasoline and diesel prices directly impact household budgets, suppress consumption.
Indirect Effect: Higher fertilizer costs → food prices rise → core inflation spreads, forming a wage-price spiral.
Policy Constraints: Increased inflation stickiness limits the Fed’s room to cut rates, prolonged high-interest environments suppress growth stock valuations.

Investor Strategies
Short-term Allocation Ideas:
1 Manage Positions: Maintain moderate cash flexibility before geopolitical clarity, avoid full positions.
2 Diversify: Avoid over-concentration in a single asset class; balance stocks, bonds, and commodities.
3 Buy on Dips: Participate in assets with mild fundamental recovery during dips, but set clear stop-loss levels.

Four Key Indicators: Control of the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Military Deployment Movements
Next Negotiation Schedule
OPEC+ Production Policy Adjustments

Risk Alerts
The market has partially priced in the failure of negotiations, but if ceasefire breaks or conflicts escalate significantly, asset prices could undergo sharp revaluation. The situation before the April 21st expiry is critical; investors should stay highly alert.

The situation is ever-changing—what is your view on next week’s market trend? Feel free to share your insights and strategies in the comments below!