I can say very clearly:

This round from 65,000 to 73,800 is not a bullish technical rally, but a "ceasefire rally." The bears were wiped out by a single agreement, and the price was driven to an undeserved level by emotions.

This morning, the negotiations officially broke down. No agreement, no extension, not even a date for the next round. The market dropped directly from 73,800 back to 71,270 — and this is without any black swan events.

You think it's over after the drop? No. This is just returning the "ceasefire premium." If there are no negotiations scheduled next, the space created by the bears being wiped out will slowly be reclaimed by the bulls paying off their debts.

The real issue now is not bull or bear, but that the market has completely turned into a puppet controlled by information. No liquidity support, no technical structure, only mutual slaughter between contract accounts.

You ask me what I think? I only know one thing: this rebound is over. The next move depends not on candlesticks, but on when the Strait of Hormuz makes the news again.

Before that news arrives, all the upward movements are just opportunities for those who didn't escape the last round to re-queue — only this time, the line is heading downward.