Ceasefire is a falsehood; controlling oil prices is the real deal? This game is deeper than you think!

Many believe that the core of this negotiation is "ceasefire."
But in reality, the more critical factor is—oil prices.
Why? Because behind oil prices are inflation, policies, and the global economy.
The U.S. needs stable oil prices to control inflation expectations;
Iran needs to use oil prices and channels to gain economic space.
So the Strait of Hormuz is not just a geographical location, but a "financial lever."
This also explains why:
It’s neither fully open nor completely blocked.
Because the optimal solution is "manageable tension."
Looking at the $6 billion incident, it’s essentially a form of "testing."
Iran signals to see the market reaction; the U.S. denies, testing the other side’s bottom line.
The whole process is like continuously adjusting the price range.
What does this mean for the market?
It won’t end immediately but will enter a "game cycle."
The characteristics of this cycle are:
✔ Emotional fluctuations
✔ Increased volatility
✔ Delayed trends
So at this stage, the most important thing is not to chase big trends but to survive.
Because the real big trend often appears after the game ends. #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故