Why should you remain vigilant about USD depreciation risk even after RIVER surged from $7 to $21?

Yesterday, I closed my position in RIVER at $16. Some comments questioned this decision, thinking the market is about to take off. But trading is never about guessing the future; it’s about making rational choices based on risk management and historical experience. Through this share, I want to explain my full understanding of this market movement.

The Underlying Logic of Closing at $16

My trading discipline is not meant to be broken. When I closed the position, the price had risen from $7 to $21, then retraced to around $14. This kind of volatility itself indicates the market’s strength and risk. The decision to close may seem passive, but it’s actually proactive risk management—locking in profits is always more reliable than chasing big dreams of huge gains.

Comparing Two Market Cycles to Reveal the Retracement Pattern

Interestingly, many people only focus on “Will it keep rising?” but overlook the historical pattern. The first cycle took a long time to take off from the bottom at $7, not an instant surge. This cycle’s movement is similar—rising from $7 to $21, then retracing to around $14. This is not bad news; it’s a normal market behavior. The dollar’s decline and correction will repeatedly occur. Your job is to recognize that this is the market’s breathing rhythm.

High Funding Rates Are Not a Sign of a Big Drop

Some in the comments doubted my bullish view because they saw high funding rates. This is a common misunderstanding. High funding rates only indicate one thing: there are still many long positions that haven’t been closed. Funding rates are essentially an incentive mechanism, allowing you to earn fees by shorting. In other words, when the dollar declines, the funding cycle (currently 4 hours, previously 1 hour) repeatedly tests the bottom’s strength. High funding rates do not necessarily mean a sharp decline is imminent.

The Key Time is When the US Markets Open

Bullish traders are always eager, wanting to know immediately—will it rise, will it surge? But honestly, this impatience is pointless. The market’s rhythm is determined by multiple factors, with the US market open being a key emotional and capital flow point. Before that time, fluctuations and consolidations are normal buildup phases.

Finally, I’m just sharing my personal trading insights and observations. If your view differs and you’re bearish on RIVER, that’s completely understandable. The market is always a dance between bulls and bears, with different risk preferences leading to different position decisions. The important thing is to have logic and discipline, not to be driven by emotions.