Morgan Stanley: Tesla (TSLA.US) "Flywheel Effect" Set to Launch, Autonomous Robotaxi to be Next Core Growth Driver

Bloomberg News has learned that Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that if Tesla (TSLA.US) successfully launches its autonomous taxi business, it will be a significant growth catalyst underestimated by the market.

Analyst Andrew Percoco expressed optimism about Tesla’s autonomous taxis and Cybercab driverless models, believing that this business could create a strong “flywheel effect” within Tesla’s ecosystem.

Percoco noted, “For every additional mile of unsupervised driving, autonomous taxis continuously optimize their underlying autonomous driving models, accelerating the realization of fully autonomous personal vehicles. This progress will boost the penetration of the FSD suite, thereby increasing vehicle demand and enhancing cash flow generation. Amid rising capital expenditures and short-term cash consumption, breakthroughs in personal FSD technology will be key to revitalizing vehicle sales and profit margins, providing funding for Tesla’s long-term AI initiatives.”

Although Tesla has been cautious in its rollout in Austin, this approach helps the company refine its promotion strategy and lays the foundation for rapid scaling in the seven new cities planned for the first half of this year. Tesla expects that after launching in new cities, the transition time from supervised to fully autonomous driving will be significantly shortened.

Most importantly, Morgan Stanley’s analyst team believes that Tesla’s vertical integration advantage in vehicle manufacturing and fleet operations (including services, maintenance, charging, insurance, etc.) gives its autonomous taxis a structural cost advantage.

Percoco emphasized, “Taking Model Y as an example, we estimate its comprehensive cost at about $0.81 per mile (excluding tolls), compared to about $1.71 per mile in the ride-hailing industry and approximately $1.43 per mile for Waymo. As Cybercab production increases, we expect the cost per mile to further decrease to $0.37 by 2035.”