# Thursday Early Morning, the Whole World is Waiting for the Fed's One Word

On March 19th, the Federal Reserve is holding another meeting.

But this one is a bit interesting: the outcome is actually already known by everyone—no rate cut in March, probability over 97%, it's written all over people's faces. So when the news comes out, there probably won't be much volatility, because it's already been fully priced in by the market.

What really needs to be watched are two things.

First, that "dot plot."
This thing is where each Fed bigwig plots their own interest rate forecast on a chart, basically the path they're drawing in their minds.
Right now the market generally thinks that throughout 2026 there might only be 1-2 rate cuts, with the first one coming in September or even later. But if the dot plot comes out even more hawkish than expected—like only one rate cut, or some people even calling for a rate hike—then risk assets are going to take a hit.

Second, Powell's mouth.
He's best at using a few words to send markets into chaos. As long as "higher for longer" comes out of his mouth, everyone knows: don't even think about it, just hang in there.

So this Thursday is essentially a psychological game:
The market has already mentally prepared for a "hawkish" outcome, the key question is whether this hawk turns out to be more vicious than imagined, or just as expected.

Simple put: bad news landing isn't the scariest thing; what's scary is bad news that exceeds expectations.
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