#比特币站上7.5万美元

1. BTC Solidifies $75,000 Support—A Signal Toward $80,000?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded a rare 8-day consecutive rally with moderate volume breakout. The price not only surged firmly above $75,000 but also briefly touched the $76,000 level. This move carries significant implications—it has effectively broken through the strong resistance zone of $70,000-$73,000, which previously suppressed multiple bounces.

Currently, the daily MACD displays a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars, indicating bullish momentum has not yet weakened. The RSI indicator sits at 65-70, within the strong zone but not yet overbought (above 80), suggesting there remains safe room for further upside. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, once $75,000 (0.236 retracement level) is decisively held, technical traders will target the $85,000-$93,000 range next. The only near-term concern is profit-taking pressure around $76,000, which has served as a bounce resistance on multiple occasions in 2026, but the overall trend has shifted to bullish offensive mode.

2. The FOMC Meeting Looms—Market Reversal or Acceleration?

This is the greatest uncertainty factor currently, and the primary variable facing near-term technicals. While markets widely expect the Fed's interest rate decision on March 19 to hold steady (very high probability of no change), the risk lies in the updated dot plot and economic projections.

From a technical analysis perspective, before major macro events materialize, markets typically experience "heightened volatility" or "liquidity contraction." If the dot plot signals further reduced rate-cut expectations (hawkish), risk assets may come under pressure, leading to a pullback in crypto prices. However, on-chain data shows sustained corporate-level buying (such as Strategy's continued accumulation) and continuous spot ETF net inflows, providing the market with strong "technical support." Therefore, regardless of the meeting outcome, as long as price doesn't decisively break below $74,000 (the MA7 and breakthrough platform's strong support level), the current uptrend channel won't be destroyed, and a temporary dip could instead attract more buyers.

3. Trading Logic: Chase the Rally or Take Profits?

Based on the aforementioned "bullish but facing macro variables" technical backdrop, the optimal current strategy should be "dip-buying on pullbacks, not chasing highs or blindly exiting tops."

1. Long Logic: The daily MA7 (approximately $74,000) has formed strong support, and the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline is also rising. For those without positions, this represents a "right-side trading" entry point. If price pulls back and stabilizes in the $74,000-$74,500 zone, it's an opportunity for a light long position with a stop-loss below $73,500, targeting a continued test of $76,500-$77,000.
2. Wait-and-See Logic: Since the FOMC is the biggest near-term variable, chasing highs near $76,000 offers poor risk-reward. Once a push higher faces resistance (such as a doji or spinning top candlestick near $76,000), a pullback for consolidation may occur first.
3. Warning Signal: Despite the sharp price rise, market sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" zone (23). This divergence between price/volume and sentiment suggests many investors have missed the move. Should sentiment turn euphoric later and RSI break above 80, that's when we need to be alert for a potential phase top.

Summary: BTC has achieved a technical breakthrough, but the $76,000 level combined with the FOMC meeting may trigger increased volatility near-term. Rather than guessing whether $80,000 will be reached in one shot, it's better to closely monitor $74,000 as the near-term bull-bear divide. Above this level, maintain a bullish bias; below it, shift to defense. ETH is showing stronger momentum but equally requires attention to resistance confirmation around $2,400.