Bitcoin continued its rebound momentum today, initially stabilizing above $74,000, achieving eight consecutive daily gains, with market sentiment showing notable improvement. However, we must maintain clear awareness that the current price action remains a sharp oversold rebound within a larger bearish cycle backdrop. The daily MA200 is positioned at $93,950, and the annual moving average at $98,078, with price exhibiting massive negative divergence from these levels. This indicates not a trend reversal, but rather a probing attack on key resistance zones.

As mentioned yesterday, upside price action must face strong resistance at $74,000, $80,000, and $85,000—these are the bearish defense lines since April 2025 and the "ceiling" determining medium-term direction. On the downside support, $72,000 has transitioned from resistance to the first psychological support level. The intraday bull-bear dividing line sits at $71,500. Should price unexpectedly break below $69,000, the short-term rebound structure breaks down, and the market will revert to the larger cycle downtrend.

Technically, the 4-hour chart shows price remains above the EMA55 moving average, but momentum indicators have entered overbought territory, while the 1-hour chart clearly displays divergence between volume and price. Various signals suggest weakening bullish momentum and insufficient confidence. Notably, with current price near six-week highs, failure to achieve a breakout of resistance on volume could easily form a short-term top. In the derivatives market, while funding rates have turned positive, open interest is simultaneously climbing, intensifying long-short competition.

BTC is currently at a critical price level—whether it achieves a volume breakout or stalls and declines requires patient observation of K-line signals. Avoid blind speculation on positions.