[Red Envelope] Waiting for Spring to Bloom 3.4 Recap

First Like, Then Watch, Earn a Million a Day! [Taogu Ba]

Here’s a summary of the market, all based on simulated trading, purely personal sandbox thinking, not financial advice. Market volatility is increasing; only with clear logic can we stay steady and go far. Remember: the market always puts risk first. Only by surviving can we wait for the bloom.

【Macro Overview】 Overseas Turmoil Rises, A-Share Market Shows Resilience

Today’s market can be described as an extreme display of “ice and fire.”

On one hand, the overseas situation suddenly escalated into a “black swan” storm. The Middle East conflict enters its fifth day, with the situation intensifying. Latest news shows that the conflict has affected multiple countries: a drone attack near the US consulate in Dubai caused a fire, and the US embassy in Saudi Arabia was also attacked; Iran claims full control of the Strait of Hormuz and warns of strikes on all Middle Eastern economic centers. The US State Department issued six evacuation orders within just three hours, causing panic and massive swings in global stock markets. The Nikkei 225 plunged, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped over 7%, triggering a circuit breaker. European shipping indices and oil futures surged, with concerns over imported inflation overshadowing global capital markets.

On the other hand, China has entered an important policy window period, injecting strong expectations into the market. This week is a critical time for discussions related to the “14th Five-Year Plan,” with keywords like social security, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing becoming market focal points. This undoubtedly provides some confidence to the turbulent A-share market.

Returning to the market: Yesterday I emphasized that the 20-day moving average is a short-term lifeline; breaking below it would significantly impact the rhythm. Today’s opening saw the index break through immediately, ending the day with a bottoming doji. But I believe there’s no need to panic or reduce positions at this level. The minute-level charts show we are already in a bottoming zone. External conflicts are sporadic events, and the market will eventually return to its own rhythm. Next, the index will either form a lower shadow to confirm a bottom or close higher, indicating a near bottom.

【Market Analysis】 Oil and Gas Divergence, Funds Playing “High-Low Cut”

This morning, I predicted that oil and gas sectors would diverge today. The logic is simple: although futures surged, the stock market is driven by expectations and capital game theory. As expected, sectors like oil and gas trading, shipping, and precious metals experienced sharp divergence from daily limit-ups to daily limit-downs. In the afternoon, oil and gas extraction saw a slight rebound, but overall funds were flowing out, indicating profit-taking and exit attempts.

A very important detail: after the oil and gas sectors fell in the morning, other sectors and stocks stabilized or stopped falling. This is a typical “funds siphoning effect” followed by liquidity returning. Today, the top net inflows came from power grid equipment, electricity, agriculture, and military industries. This suggests the market is warming up for upcoming policy themes, gradually shifting from simple risk aversion trades to logically supported themes.

Those who didn’t catch the oil and gas gains early should avoid chasing the knife. As always, stay grounded and only trade within your understanding.

【Old Script Swing Positions】 (Stock views unchanged, logic clarified)

1. Qimingxingchen: Continues to decline on the left side but remains within the box pattern. The bottom here is likely to succeed, with limited retracement. Still believe that digital economy and data security are long-term tracks. Watch for a rebound above 16; whether it can reach 17 depends on volume. 19+ requires more time; take it step by step.
2. Leading Shares: Following the market’s inertia downward, likely already bottomed. Technically, a V-shaped rebound is expected, bouncing back to the previous platform. Short-term funds can exit on the rebound; those waiting for a 10+ space to return to the bottom should be patient, waiting for confirmation of the bottom to trade with time and space.
3. Yixintang: Broke the original box today, not yet bottomed, but tomorrow is a key point; the decline should be limited. The previous high is just a bit away from 15, a pity. After the drop, the pace slowed, but 15+ is not a big problem; wait for a rebound.
4. Daye Shares: Said a few days ago that a bottom would appear within a few days; today continued to follow the market. This stock is “not clean,” with incomplete shakeouts. New players should avoid entering recklessly. Wait for a big bullish candle to return to the right side; the shakeout and line-building still need time, but a V-shaped rebound is expected first.
5. Geer Shares: Originally planned to rebound around 26 and challenge 28+ after a big wave. Market drag is unfortunate, but 90% of stocks are like this. Still capable of a big rally; watch for a big upward move after it forms.
6. A certain health-related stock: Three consecutive down days, today slightly broke below the lower track. But funds are stable; this is the bottom zone. Wait for a big bullish rebound before considering exiting.

【New Script & Short-term Play】 Smart Automation Limit Up, Switch to “Xing Ye” for Increased Positions

· Smart Automation: Achieved a limit-up today! After a recent pullback during the layout, today’s surge was realized and sold, increasing position to “Xing Ye.”
· Jiangnan High Fiber: Chemical logic unchanged; after a small profit-taking correction, now near cost line. The dip is complete; expect a rally in the coming days, just wait.
· Beinaimei: Warned of resistance above in recent days; today formed a medium-length red candle, but the trend remains normal. With consumption recovery and related themes catalyzing, this is a N-shaped structure. Looking forward to a big bullish move for surprises.
· Xing Ye (unpublicized): Good pattern, currently just retracing. A big bullish rebound is certain, possibly even a limit-up; I believe there will be no mistake.
· A certain Friday stock: Retraced 7 points, no problem. After consolidation, a big upward move is expected. This sector also has potential catalysts. Hold on and wait for spring to bloom.

【Big Luck Ending】 Learning to Handle Difficulties Is a Must

Financial markets always go through ups and downs. When it’s not rising, it’s falling. Today’s market, though shaken, shows positive signals—small fund inflows, bottoming on minute charts, policy window expectations. Learning how to handle tough times is a crucial lesson in this market.

Pay close attention to upcoming policy developments and catch some industry keywords. Let’s share and discuss together.

Talking on paper, self-reflection. Markets are unpredictable; take care of yourselves. Wishing everyone calm and confident. — Big Luck

Thanks to old friends for your companionship and support. If you’re interested, spending a little time daily to comment, like, and interact is a kind of fate.

Talking on paper, self-reflection. Markets are unpredictable; take care of yourselves. Wishing everyone calm and confident. — Big Luck