【ETH 4H Technical Structure In-Depth Analysis | Key Support Break, Downward Trend Strengthened】

Trend Qualitative and Core Evolution
Ethereum's 4-hour chart has effectively broken below the important psychological and technical threshold of $3000. The price continues to operate below all cycle moving averages and shows a "disconnected" decline, confirming the end of the previous weak oscillation structure. Market sentiment has shifted to extreme pessimism, with the bearish trend entering a clear acceleration phase, dominating the market in the short term.

Multi-Dimensional Technical Structure Analysis

1. Moving Average System and Dynamic Resistance:
· Moving averages across all cycles show a perfect bearish divergence arrangement. MA5 (~3008) has rapidly moved down near the recently broken threshold, forming a strong resistance zone with the $3000-3020 area.
· Mid-term moving averages MA20 (~3192) and MA30 (~3227) form distant but heavy resistance above, indicating that trend reversal requires a complex process of moving average correction.
2. Key Price Levels and Structural Transition:
· Resistance Rebuilding: The $3000-3050 area has completely shifted from a core support platform to the current rebound ceiling. Any weak rebound will be severely tested here.
· Downside Target: After a successful break, the chart clearly shows the price testing the previous low of $2914.50. This level is the nearest substantial support point; if broken with increased volume, the downward space could extend to $2850 or lower.
3. Momentum Indicators Verification:
· MACD: The dual lines (DIF and DEA) are showing accelerated decline below the zero axis, with the histogram lengthening again, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released, with no signs of convergence or exhaustion.
· Volume: During the break of the key psychological threshold, volume increased, confirming the validity of the decline and the emergence of panic selling, making a quick V-shaped reversal more difficult in the short term.
· RSI: The value is 21.51, entering a severely oversold zone. However, in a smooth one-sided downtrend, caution is needed as indicators may become dulled; relying solely on oversold conditions for left-side trading carries high risk.

Market Outlook and Projection
The current market structure has fully shifted to bearish. The next focus is on the market reaction when testing the $2914.50 support:

· If a halt and rebound occur near this level, the strength of the rebound (especially whether it can retouch or even surpass $3000) will be crucial. A weak rebound followed by another decline will form a new downward relay structure.
· If the $2914.50 support is easily broken, it indicates that the downward momentum has not been fully released, and the price will seek the next support level, potentially triggering a new round of panic selling.
· The true bottom formation takes time; it is necessary to observe whether a "bottom divergence" or "consolidation platform" type 4-hour support structure can form near key levels, and wait for synchronized signals of momentum indicator correction.

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