Artificial Intelligence Revolution: When Capital Investments Mark a New Era of the Economy

From Investment to Transformation: Reading Market Signals

Dan Ives, known for his foresight in the tech sector, emphasizes the fundamentally different nature of the current AI boom. Unlike the dot-com speculation, today’s investments are directed toward tangible infrastructure: migration to the cloud, building national AI systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and upgrading corporate platforms. This is not just a trendy trend—it’s a fundamental rewriting of economic rules.

With over 25 years of specialization, Ives has traveled more than 3 million miles, directly engaging with industry leaders and studying data centers. His conclusion is unequivocal: “It’s impossible to gauge true demand through spreadsheets. You need to be on the ground.” This empirical approach allows him to spot trends earlier than the market.

Scale of Investment: Numbers That Change Perspectives

To understand the scale of AI transformation, consider Ives’ forecasts: capital expenditures over the next 24 months will surpass all AI spending in the past ten years combined. This is not hyperbole—it’s a reflection of the real build-out of global computing infrastructure.

According to research firm Gartner, global AI spending—including hardware, software, and services—could reach $2 trillion by 2026. Moreover, according to The Kobeissi Letter, 63% of recent US economic growth is directly linked to AI investments. As analysts note: without these investments, the US economy would show much weaker results.

Cathie Wood of ARK Fund summarizes: “This story is just beginning. We are in the first inning.” Ives shares this assessment but goes further, emphasizing that the adoption curve is still in its early stages. “This is more like 1996 than 1999,” he says, alluding to the fact that unlike the bubble of the late 1990s, current dynamics remain powerful.

Clear Champions, but Winners May Surprise You

NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Palantir remain in the spotlight, but Ives emphasizes often underrated players who will also reap significant profits.

Cybersecurity as a New Frontier

Companies like CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Palo Alto Networks will play key roles in protecting the AI economy. CrowdStrike has earned a spot on the Wedbush AI 30 List and Best Ideas List. On December 1, analysts reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a target price of $600 per share (compared to the price of $509.16 at that time). The company is actively expanding its coverage through tools like the AgentWorks platform based on Charlotte AI, strategic acquisitions of (Onum, Pangea), and obtaining FedRAMP High Authorization.

Infrastructure as the Invisible Hero

Infrastructure providers—Vertiv, Akamai, and semiconductor manufacturers—form the critical power chain for the AI economy. TSMC, ASML, and Intel form the backbone of this power chain, without which building computational capacity is impossible. The demand for AI processors continues to increase the load on manufacturing capacities, making these manufacturers as vital as software platforms.

Updating Enterprise Software

Though often in the shadows, enterprise software modernization is a necessary condition for the functioning of the AI economy.

National Competition and the Strategic Importance of Semiconductors

The US and China are making massive investments in computing power, advanced chips, and AI initiatives. This geopolitical divide is especially evident in decisions regarding technology exports.

On December 8, President Trump authorized NVIDIA to supply H200 AI chips to selected Chinese clients, but a quarter of the volume is directed to the US for national security reasons. This move illustrates both the economic and strategic importance of AI hardware.

Palantir: From Government Contractor to AI Leader

When Palantir debuted on the stock exchange at around $10 per share, the market perceived it as a company dependent on government contracts. Ives saw what others did not: a quiet evolution and penetration into the corporate market.

On July 28, 2023, he initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of $25—50% higher than the previous close of $16.15. As AI capabilities developed, Ives repeatedly raised his forecasts. Calling the company “Messi AI” (by analogy with Lionel Messi), he predicted its transformation.

Today, Palantir shares trade near $180, confirming the accuracy of his analysis. “Palantir has been undervalued for years,” recalls an analyst. “But watching the evolution built by Alex Karp and seeing the growth from $10 to current levels—it’s an exceptional honor.”

Contrasts in Views: Not Everyone Considers This Wise

It’s worth noting: not all major market players share Ives’ optimism. Michael Burry, famous for “The Big Short,” has made significant bets against AI leaders like NVIDIA and Palantir, totaling around $10 million. This indicates that skeptics remain, worried about market speculation.

Conclusion: At the Beginning of a Long Story

The AI revolution is not a short-term cycle but the first chapter of a long story of transformation. Investments in the coming years will be comparable to the development of the internet, but this time, a material foundation is being built—power chains, semiconductors, data centers, and security systems. The market is still in the early stages of adoption, meaning: selected players—from obvious (NVIDIA, Microsoft) to less visible (CrowdStrike, infrastructure manufacturers)—will have the opportunity to realize significant potential. Those who understand this dynamic today will gain advantages in recognizing winners tomorrow.