Midterm elections in the United States often serve as a breeding ground for black swan events in the crypto world. November 2026 is approaching, with primaries concentrated from March to September, and this wave of risk turbulence has already begun to brew.

Looking back at the painful lessons of recent years makes it clear. The 2022 wave coincided exactly with the FTX explosion, causing Bitcoin to drop 15% in a single day and briefly fall below $16,000, with over 7.3 billion in liquidations across the network. After the Democratic Party gained a majority in the House in 2018, regulation stalled temporarily, crypto ETFs cooled off, and Bitcoin was halved that month, with the bear market mercilessly kicking in. And what about the recent 2025? The crypto bill failed to pass the vote, Bitcoin's single-day decline exceeded 5%, and liquidation amounts approached $500 million.

The pattern is very clear: political cycles amplify policy expectations, expectation volatility triggers market panic, and short-term fluctuations are infinitely magnified. The real key still depends on the regulatory direction — this is the critical variable that determines the long-term landscape.