Solana hovers around a key support level as traders reassess risk exposure

Solana (SOL) currently trades at $139.79, with a 24-hour increase of +1.74%, but market participants remain divided on the next move. This price level is in a sensitive zone: not enough to confirm a bullish signal, nor has it triggered panic selling. The key question is whether the current consolidation represents accumulation or distribution.

Price Structure Reveals the Market’s True Intentions

After being rejected near $147 , SOL entered a correction phase. The four-hour chart shows a series of lower highs, while breaking below the 20, 50, and 100-period moving averages. These technical signals indeed indicate short-term pressure.

However, the broader picture has not fully turned bearish. SOL still remains above the key level of $121.70—an area that has repeatedly supported strong rebounds. Therefore, the medium-term structure remains neutral, not an outright downtrend. Sellers have eased, but buyers are also cautious, lacking clear aggressive intent.

From the momentum indicators, Chaikin Money Flow remains slightly negative, suggesting mild outflows rather than panic selling. This indicates traders are gradually reducing their positions; demand is not strong, but distribution pressure has not significantly increased.

Technical Position Defines the “Life and Death Line” for Short-term Trading

Currently, Solana’s movement is bounded by several key levels. The $133.80 to $135.45 range forms the first resistance, where EMA lines and historical supply pressures converge. Above, the $142 line represents a stronger resistance point, as it was a turning point during a collapse. If SOL can recover $147, market sentiment could quickly flip, and failed longs might rush in. But this depends on a firm breakout of the current resistance cluster.

On the downside, $131.40 to $130.90 is immediate support. If this zone is broken, the next target is $127.70, aligning with a significant Fibonacci retracement area. The final “break point” is at $121.70—if breached, the medium-term trend could reverse decisively to bearish.

Leverage Cools Off, but Market Engagement Remains

Derivatives data shows an interesting phenomenon: leverage increases during price rebounds but shrinks during pullbacks. Recent open interest peaks occurred near local highs, indicating traders were overly crowded at that time. During subsequent corrections, open interest declined, suggesting positions were being closed rather than new shorts added.

As of recent, open interest remains stable around $7.3 billion, corresponding to the $130 zone. The implication is that, after volatility eased, leverage cooled down, but trader interest has not completely vanished. This state reflects caution rather than panic.

Spot flow data tells a similar story. Most of the time, flows are outflows, especially during sharp corrections. But recent inflow momentum has slowed, hinting at easing selling pressure. Overall, spot flows indicate a cautious attitude rather than a new round of accumulation.

Pre-Volatility Build-up

On the four-hour chart, SOL is moving within a clear correction channel, bounded by distinct support and resistance levels. This price compression often signals that once key levels are broken, volatility will expand.

Bullish scenario: If volume confirms a breakout above $135.50, SOL could retest the $141.95–$142.00 zone. Maintaining this momentum, $147 is not a dream.

Bearish scenario: If support at $131.40–$130.90 collapses, $127.70 will be the next test. Falling below $121.70 would invalidate the entire medium-term rally.

Final Bet

Solana is at a crossroads. Whether buyers can hold $130 and reclaim the EMA cluster will determine the next direction. The ongoing consolidation reflects more market hesitation than pessimism. The current combination of cooled leverage and stable spot flows sets the stage for a breakout.

If volume significantly increases upon breaking $135.50, SOL could challenge $142 again, possibly approaching $147. Conversely, failing to hold $130 could trigger a downward chain reaction, with targets potentially dropping to $127.70 or even $121.70.

The market is in this critical zone, waiting for confirmation signals.