Standard Chartered's Major Prediction: 2026 Will Be the "Year of Ethereum" — Can ETH Replicate Its 2021 Glory?

Rarely bullish outlook from top global investment banks: what hidden cards are behind the $7,500 target for ETH?

When Wall Street Giants Back Ethereum

In the turbulent start of 2025 in the crypto market, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, issued a prediction that shook the industry: 2026 will be the "Year of Ethereum," with ETH significantly outperforming the market and replicating the brilliance of 2021.

This view comes from Standard Chartered's latest digital asset report. Although the bank has lowered its short-term price forecast for Ethereum, it remains unprecedentedly optimistic about its long-term prospects—expecting ETH to reach $7,500 by the end of 2026 and potentially break through $40,000 by 2030. More notably, Standard Chartered believes the ETH/BTC ratio will return to the 2021 high of 0.08, indicating Ethereum's relative appreciation potential will far surpass Bitcoin's.

What makes this 160-year-old international bank so bullish on Ethereum? The answer lies in Ethereum's unique structural advantages and the latest on-chain data.

1. Standard Chartered's Forecast Breakdown: Price Targets and Core Logic

1.1 Revised Price Roadmap

Standard Chartered's ETH price forecast features a "conservative short-term, aggressive long-term" approach:

• End of 2026: $7,500 (previously forecasted at $12,000)

• End of 2027: $15,000

• End of 2028: $22,000

• End of 2029: $30,000 (new growth phase target)

• End of 2030: $40,000 (new growth phase target)

While the 2026 target has been lowered, the bank has extended its forecast horizon to 2030 for the first time, demonstrating strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term value. Kendrick emphasizes in the report: "Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's driving forces are strengthening."

1.2 Key Prediction: ETH/BTC Reverting to 0.08

Standard Chartered believes that the current ETH/BTC ratio is severely undervalued and will gradually rebound to the 2021 high of approximately 0.08. This forecast is based on a core judgment: Ethereum possesses structural advantages that other cryptocurrencies lack, which will be fully realized in the next bull market.

2. The Three "Moats" of Ethereum: Truth Revealed by Data

2.1 Stablecoin Market: Ethereum's Absolute Dominance

Latest on-chain data strongly supports Standard Chartered's view. According to Token Terminal, in Q4 2025, Ethereum's stablecoin transfer volume surpassed $8 trillion, setting a new record and nearly doubling from Q2. This is not just speculative trading but reflects real demand for global payment settlements on-chain.

Even more impressive are market share figures:

• Ethereum accounts for 57% of all stablecoin issuance, far ahead of second-place Tron network at 27%

• Out of the total $187 billion USDT issued, over half is deployed on Ethereum

• Stablecoin activity accounts for 35%-40% of Ethereum's total transaction volume

Coinbase research predicts that the stablecoin market could reach nearly $3 trillion in the next five years. Given Ethereum's dominance, this will undoubtedly be the biggest engine for ETH value capture.

2.2 RWA Tokenization: The Gateway for Institutional Adoption

Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is recognized as a core trend moving the crypto market from "concept" to "industry." Ethereum is at the forefront of this transformation:

• Total on-chain RWA value is about $19 billion, with Ethereum holding 65% of the market share

• Including Layer 2 and EVM-compatible chains, market share exceeds 70%

• Major financial giants like Franklin Templeton and JPMorgan are choosing Ethereum as their pilot platform

From private credit, corporate bonds to real estate, traditional financial assets are accelerating on-chain. This not only creates trillions of dollars in potential asset custody demand but also fosters sustained, stable on-chain activity, reducing reliance on speculative trading.

2.3 DeFi Ecosystem: Innovation Never Stops

Despite fluctuations in previous cycles, 2025 data shows a robust DeFi ecosystem:

• Decentralized exchanges and lending protocols continue to expand

• Emerging applications like prediction markets and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) are pushing boundaries

• Layer 2 solutions mature, significantly lowering transaction costs

As the birthplace of DeFi, Ethereum hosts over 70% of total value locked (TVL), a network effect that is difficult for competitors to replicate.

3. Dual Catalysts: Technical and Regulatory

3.1 Fusaka Upgrade: Approaching Throughput Breakthrough

Standard Chartered highlights that "the planned increase in Ethereum Layer 1 throughput is crucial; historical data shows higher throughput often correlates with higher market cap."

The Fusaka upgrade, approved in December 2025, is a key step. It optimizes data availability and execution efficiency, bringing substantial scalability to the mainnet. Meanwhile, the Pectra upgrade launched in Q4 2025 lays the groundwork for future Verkle Trees and Danksharding.

On-chain data already shows results: Ethereum's daily transaction volume hit a record high of 2.23 million in December 2025, with active monthly addresses reaching 10.4 million. Improved network performance directly translates into user growth, which is fundamental for long-term value.

3.2 Clarified Regulations: Green Light for Institutional Funds

Regulation has long been seen as the biggest uncertainty in crypto markets. However, the Standard Chartered report states that the "Clarity Act" is expected to pass US legislation in Q1 2025, which could have profound impacts.

The core of this bill is to clarify the legal status and regulatory framework for digital assets, especially:

• Differentiating security tokens from commodity tokens

• Providing compliant pathways for financial institutions to participate in crypto

• Establishing standards for stablecoin issuance

Standard Chartered believes that if the Clarity Act is approved, combined with the resilience of the US stock market, it will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the first half of the year, ultimately supporting Ethereum's long-term upward trend. Interestingly, Ethereum's "sufficient decentralization" may allow it to gain clearer regulatory positioning under this framework.

4. Spot ETF: The "Trojan Horse" for Institutional Adoption

Although Ethereum spot ETFs were only approved in 2024 and their capital inflow is less than Bitcoin ETFs, 2025 data shows positive signals:

• In June 2025, weekly net inflows into Ethereum ETFs reached $4.86 billion, a record high

• ETH weight in major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity's crypto portfolios continues to rise

• Traditional institutions like State Street and PayPal are beginning to build applications on Ethereum

Standard Chartered predicts that long-term funds like pension funds will accelerate ETH allocations in 2025. Unlike Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, Ethereum's positioning as a "blockchain operating system" makes its value proposition easier for traditional investors to understand.

5. Market Divergence and Risk Warnings

5.1 Forecast Variations: Different Voices Must Be Heard

It’s worth noting that not all institutions agree with Standard Chartered's aggressive forecast. For example, RootData's 2026 ETH maximum price estimate is only $6,610, far below the bank's $7,500 target.

This divergence reflects market uncertainty:

• Macroeconomic risks: Federal Reserve interest rate policies, fears of global recession

• Technical competition: threats from public chains like Solana and Avalanche in high-frequency applications

• Ethereum's own challenges: value capture disputes from Layer 2 solutions, MEV issues

5.2 Rational View of the "Year of Ethereum"

Kendrick's analogy of 2026 as "2021" should be interpreted rationally. Ethereum's bull run in 2021 was mainly driven by DeFi summer and NFT craze, whereas growth in 2026 will rely more on real-world adoption and institutional funds, implying:

• Volatility may decrease, but the upward slope will be steadier

• Valuations will be more based on fundamentals rather than narratives

• Regulatory risks will increase

Conclusion: Ethereum's "Coming of Age"

The report from Standard Chartered reveals an important trend: the crypto market is shifting from "speculation-driven" to "fundamentals-driven," with Ethereum being the biggest beneficiary of this transition.

As stablecoin settlements, RWA tokenization, and institutional-grade DeFi become mainstream, Ethereum is no longer just a cryptocurrency but the foundation of a new generation of global financial infrastructure. The specific figures of $7,500 or $40,000 may be debated, but the continuous growth of Ethereum's network value has become an industry consensus.

For investors, the key question is no longer "Can Ethereum succeed?" but rather **"Do we understand the true meaning of Ethereum's success?"**.

🎯 Discussion Topic

After reading Standard Chartered's prediction, what is your view on Ethereum's future?

• A. Bullish stance, 2026 will definitely be the "Year of Ethereum"!

• B. Cautiously optimistic, but concerned about competing chains and regulatory risks

• C. Skeptical, think the prediction is too aggressive

Feel free to leave your opinion in the comments! If you find the analysis insightful, don’t forget to:

• ✅ Follow us for the latest in-depth crypto insights

• 👍 Like and support to let more investors see professional analysis

• 💬 Comment and interact, share your unique perspective

• 🔄 Share with friends, seize crypto opportunities together

• 🔔 Leave a message

This article reflects only personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are risky; invest cautiously.

#我看好的中文Meme币 $BTC