2026-01-12 13:31:07

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The US December Non-Farm Payrolls report is out, with only 50,000 new jobs added, well below market expectations of 60,000 to 73,000. However, an unexpected positive is that the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5%. Once this data was released, the trading logic for a Fed rate cut in January collapsed—traders slashed the probability of a rate cut in January to 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate soared to 95%.

Major institutions like Goldman Sachs still insist that there could be two rate cuts by 2026, totaling 50 basis points, ultimately bringing the federal funds rate to the 3%-3.25% range. Their judgment is based on assumptions of continued moderate inflation decline and further weakening of the labor market. However, institutions like Standard Chartered are more cautious, directly stating that there might be no rate cuts at all in 2026.

Bitcoin experienced a short-term reaction after the non-farm data was released, briefly breaking through $90,000, but then retreated back to around $90,000, oscillating back and forth. The current situation is that ETF capital flows have become the dominant force influencing the price, but the major institutional whales have not yet entered on a large scale. The consensus in the analysis community is that $BTC is currently in a 'range-bound consolidation' phase. Without strong bullish signals, this consolidation trend may continue.

BTC0,79%

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 2h ago

Non-farm payrolls missed again, and this time the unemployment rate actually dropped, the market logic can't hold up anymore haha. Wait, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped directly to 5%? Wow, the speed of this reversal... Goldman Sachs is still dreaming, expecting two cuts in 2026? Standard Chartered directly said they might not cut at all, I believe Standard Chartered. Riding the 90,000 yuan back and forth, just waiting for big institutions to take over, right now it's still a retail traders' playground. No more rate cuts, what can BTC do? Just keep bouncing around like this. Institutions haven't really stepped in yet, that's the most heartbreaking part. Bitcoin is stuck at 90,000 again, ETF is playing, what about the big players? High and dry, that's exactly how the current market is.

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AirdropHuntress

· 8h ago

50,000 new jobs data hit the market, and the trading logic indeed collapsed, but the unemployment rate is moving in the opposite direction... It all feels a bit suspicious. The divergence among institutions is so great that Goldman Sachs is insistent on cutting rates, while Standard Chartered outright says no cut, indicating that no one is certain. Historical data shows that the greater the divergence, the more likely it is to be proven wrong. Bitcoin fluctuated back and forth around 90,000, and ETF funds have become the only dominant force? This means that the real big money is still on the sidelines, and no one dares to hold heavy positions. Range-bound consolidation is the most annoying rhythm and also the most dangerous.

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GasWhisperer

· 8h ago

ngl the 95% hold probability just flipped the entire script... mempool's gonna get wild when institutions finally decide to move. btc stuck in this box like stale transactions waiting for the next fee wave tbh

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 8h ago

It's that kind of data again, playing word games. The employment data is terrible, but the unemployment rate looks good. I really can't understand this logic.

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GetRichLeek

· 8h ago

Got cut again, with such poor non-farm payroll data, is the rate cut gone? The push to 90,000 on Bitcoin is just a trap to lure more buyers. --- Goldman Sachs says rate cuts will happen in 2026. I say it should have gone bankrupt in 2024. Now it's just dithering in the box range. --- The big institutional whales haven't entered the market yet. So what are we small retail investors doing here, waiting to be locked in? --- The unemployment rate is actually decreasing. Is this data being viewed backwards? The economy is so strong, why is the coin still hovering around 90,000? --- Wait, let me do a quick calculation. The technical support level is still at 88,000. The big players are definitely laying in wait here to trap the retail investors. --- Standard Chartered says no rate cuts at all, Goldman Sachs says two cuts. What are these institutions talking about? Let's just see if ETFs will buy in or not. --- Woken up early this morning by the non-farm payroll data, the feeling of heavy loss is back. I knew breaking 90,000 was a false breakout. --- Can someone tell me if this is a good opportunity to buy the dip or if I should keep dumping? I'm really having a hard time telling.

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BearMarketNoodler

· 8h ago

A 5% probability of rate cut—these traders are really overthinking it. Unemployment rate is actually decreasing, and those folks at Goldman Sachs have been saying for years that rates will cut in 2026. I think we might as well not wait. By the time the big players actually enter the market, it might be too late, and right now ETFs are just self-entertaining, stuck in a range-bound oscillation. Anyway, I'm used to this kind of market behavior. Right after the non-farm payrolls are released, the price of coins drops sharply. What does that indicate? Without real money backing it up, it's all just hype. I still can't quite see through the 90,000 level.

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StakeHouseDirector

· 8h ago

50,000 new jobs directly broke the defense, the January rate cut dream is shattered --- Goldman Sachs is still dreaming of a rate cut in 2026, Standard Chartered directly said they might not cut at all, these two institutions are just slapping each other's faces --- Fluctuating around $90,000, it's really torturous, just waiting for institutional big players to come and rescue --- Range-bound oscillation is so annoying, if there are no strong positive signals, we still have to wait --- The unemployment rate is so resilient, the Federal Reserve is even less likely to move, the crypto circle must rely on itself --- Non-farm payrolls exploded, the crypto price once broke $90,000 but was pushed back, ETFs are leading the pattern, retail investors just watch --- This wave of data logic is completely messed up, traders cut the January rate cut to 5%, truly speechless

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