Monero's recent market movement has indeed been fierce. In 24 hours, it surged by 18.2% to reach $596.61, with a market cap surpassing $10.5 billion, quickly climbing to the 18th position. This can be seen as a rare rebound in a bear market, but if you want to push into the top ten? The difficulty level is maxed out.

First, let's discuss the favorable factors. After the core team of ZCash disbanded, funds in privacy coins continued to flow into XMR. Coupled with global regulations like the EU DAC8 directive bringing transparency to crypto transactions, privacy needs have been stimulated. In recent months, XMR has defied the trend with a 41.5% increase, and this momentum is indeed formidable. From a technical perspective, on-chain transaction volume has led among privacy coins for years, with core developers submitting code weekly, setting new records. Its decentralized architecture also avoids the pitfalls of centralized governance. Experts predict that if by April next year, the price reaches $847, corresponding to a market cap of about $15.6 billion, it would be close to the entry threshold for the top ten (as of January 10, ADA ranked 10th with a market cap of $14.226 billion). From this perspective, the numbers aren't so hopeless.

But the reality is in front of us. First, the market cap gap is a major hurdle—current coins in the top ten all have market caps over $14 billion, and XMR still needs over $3.7 billion. Moreover, liquidity and market consensus for leading coins far surpass those of privacy coins. What's more painful is regulatory hurdles. XMR’s fully anonymous design conflicts with global anti-money laundering rules. Dubai has explicitly banned it, 73 exchanges have delisted XMR, and by 2027, custodial services will be forced to exit. This compliance pressure directly blocks large institutional investments.

Liquidity is also a shortcoming. The average daily trading volume is only $1-1.1 billion, far below the tens of billions seen in top coins. Insufficient trading volume means that even a strong upward trend can be easily disrupted, and a DEX-centric trading ecosystem offers limited appeal to large funds.

Ultimately, XMR has a chance to break into the top ten, but many variables exist. If the privacy sector continues to explode and the price truly rises to $847 as predicted, the market cap could reach the threshold for the top ten. But the key still depends on regulatory policies. If more bans or delisting waves occur later, the rally could abruptly halt. Conversely, if technical solutions can find a compliant balance (such as implementing selective disclosure mechanisms), the chances of breaking through could significantly improve. It all depends on how subsequent developments unfold.