Cardano Price Analysis: ADA Needs Bull and Bear Confirmation at Critical Level, Derivatives Data Reveals Market Sentiment

In the latest four-hour trend, Cardano (ADA) is at a delicate equilibrium point. According to recent data, ADA’s current trading price is approximately $0.39, down 2.39% over the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of $3.28M. The key question is whether this price level can serve as a rebound support or if it will further test lower levels.

Dampening Signals from the Derivatives Market

From the perspective of the futures market, traders are clearly reducing their leverage exposure. Open interest has rapidly fallen from high levels to around $690 million in a short period, which warrants attention. When prices rebound, leveraged positions increase; but when the rebound weakens and prices turn downward, these contracts are immediately liquidated.

What does this phenomenon reflect? Market participants lack a clear directional bias for the subsequent trend. They are not actively building positions but are quickly reducing risk exposure. In other words, the current market sentiment is cautious, with investors waiting for clearer signals.

Spot Market Outflows Indicate Distribution Pressure

The performance of the spot market further confirms this. ADA continues to record net outflows, indicating funds are withdrawing from exchanges. Although short-term inflow spikes occasionally occur, the overall trend is one-way — risk assets are leaving.

Most critically, this outflow accelerates during price declines. The net outflow reaches approximately $3.28 million, aligning with ADA’s current trading range. This is not accumulation but a clear distribution signal. Most holders are adopting a defensive stance rather than an aggressive one.

Technical “Dilemma”

From the four-hour chart, ADA is being pressed below the 100-period and 200-period exponential moving averages. These two moving averages form a “ceiling,” severely limiting upward price movement. Even recent rebound attempts have seen highs lower than previous resistance levels, indicating sellers still dominate at higher prices.

The current price hovers around $0.38, which is a critical support zone. If this level is broken, the next test will be at $0.37, followed by $0.36 and $0.35, which are historical demand zones.

Conversely, to confirm a rebound, ADA needs to regain the $0.40-$0.41 range. If successful, further resistance levels at $0.42 and $0.43 should be tested. Only after testing and breaking these resistances can we talk about challenging higher supply zones at $0.45-$0.48.

Price Targets and Risk Assessment

Bullish Scenario: If buyers manage to hold at around $0.37 and push the price into the $0.40-$0.42 range, then a test of $0.45 and even higher levels could follow. However, this depends on spot inflows turning positive and derivatives data showing stronger buying confidence.

Bearish Scenario: If support at $0.37 fails, the price could fall to $0.35, extending the correction cycle. In this case, waiting for a rebound confirmation would be a more prudent choice.

Next Market Clues

Cardano is currently in a convergence zone, which typically signals increased volatility. The market has already shown enough caution signals: shrinking derivatives positions, spot outflows, and low technical indicators. A decisive move is imminent.

Either buyers regroup to push the price toward higher resistance levels; or sellers continue to pressure, forcing the price downward. The $0.37-$0.40 range is the main battleground. Investors should closely monitor reactions in this zone, as it will determine whether ADA moves higher or falls into a deeper correction.