2026-01-12 12:50:16

#密码资产动态追踪 Tomorrow night at 21:30 US December CPI data will be released, which is the most noteworthy macro event of the week.

Honestly, this set of numbers itself doesn't have as big an impact on the crypto world as expected. The market has long been expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. But the real point of interest is: can this data further reinforce the expectation of rate cuts, allowing liquidity to be released faster and with more certainty? That is the true driver that can push the market upward.

Compared to the data figures, what we should pay more attention to is how the market reacts. Once the CPI is released, the US stock market may fluctuate violently — the question is, will Bitcoin and mainstream coins follow suit and fall in tandem? Or will they be able to stand independently, with smaller declines, or even be quickly bottomed out by institutional funds? If the latter occurs, it will be interesting. This would indicate that the continuous influx of institutional capital is strong enough to withstand macroeconomic sentiment shocks. Within the framework of the super cycle theory, this is the real proof of why pullbacks tend to be shallower.

Let's look at it simply in three scenarios:

**Data is stable with no surprises** — The market may not react much, and focus will shift back to the crypto market's own capital flows and ecosystem development.

**Data exceeds expectations and is positive** — Expectations of aggressive easing are reinforced, and all risk assets will be pushed higher.

**Data unexpectedly weak** — This is the real stress test. Don't panic prematurely; pay attention to two details: Is Bitcoin more resilient to declines than US stocks and gold? Is Bitcoin spot ETF entering the market at low levels? If both answers are yes, it indicates a healthy structure, and the long-term upward trend's fundamentals are intact. A decline is very likely just a low-entry opportunity.

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HodlTheDoor

· 12h ago

Tomorrow night's data will reveal whether the institutions can really hold up or not. This time, the true picture will come to light. Waiting to see if Bitcoin is truly resistant to drops—no need for many words, the data will speak for itself. It's another test; if the institutions pass, they are truly strong. If not, we still have to wait. The rate cut expectations have been overhyped for a while; the key is when real liquidity will actually flow in. The buying volume in spot ETFs is the real signal—keep a close eye on it. If the decline is shallower than that of US stocks, it will be more interesting, indicating that cryptocurrencies have truly become independent. Once the window for low-cost buying appears, don't wait—provided that institutions are still accumulating. If we can hold through this wave, the super cycle theory will have much more credibility.

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GateUser-4745f9ce

· 12h ago

Do institutional funds really have such strong resilience? It still seems to depend on face value. --- Honestly, if the US stock market crashes after the CPI data is released, Bitcoin will still have to kneel. --- Instead of waiting for the data, it's better to watch how ETF holdings are moving now. --- The expectation of interest rate cuts has been hyped up for a while. If the actual data is released, it might actually cause a sell-off. --- I'm ready to buy the dip; it all depends on whether it can fall to a reasonable level. --- Institutional resistance to emotional shocks? Laughable. Last time, they ran faster than retail investors. --- Tomorrow night will be a litmus test. Only those who can hold up are truly institutional buyers. --- Talking about liquidity sounds nice, but it still depends on the Federal Reserve's mood. --- I'm waiting for a buying opportunity at the dip, but it has to really fall first. --- By the way, the idea that Bitcoin is more resilient to drops than gold is a bit of an overstatement.

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SeeYouInFourYears

· 12h ago

The pace of institutional bottom-fishing has indeed accelerated, and it feels less likely to be crushed by macro sentiment. Wait, if this CPI is really weak, can we directly scoop up the bargains? Honestly, I'm most afraid of stable data, because then there won't be much catalysts. If institutions can really withstand this wave, I will believe in the super cycle. The rate cut expectations have long been priced in; the key is whether it can move independently. When gold and US stocks fall, whether the coins hold strong—that's the real point. It feels like this time the ETF will play a role; the scene of buying at low levels should be coming.

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