The Sam Rule, proposed by American economist Claudia Sahm, has recently gained attention. The logic of this rule is simple: when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate minus the unemployment rate low point from the previous year exceeds 0.5%, it indicates that the economy is entering a recession.

Looking at recent data: the September unemployment rate was 4.4%, in October, due to the government shutdown, official data is missing but it is reasonably estimated to be between 4.5-4.6%, and November is 4.6%. Calculating this, (4.4+4.5+4.6)/3 minus the 4% low point, is exactly 0.5%.

More notably, on the employment side. In October, non-farm employment decreased by 105,000 jobs in a single month, the largest monthly decline since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Government employment decreased by 162,000, with the government shutdown causing a large number of civil servants to be temporarily unemployed.

Interestingly, as these recession signals become clearer, the precious metals market has been hitting new highs over the past few months. What about Bitcoin, the "digital gold"? Is it a true safe-haven asset or just a regular commodity? Essentially, it depends on whether retail investors can truly hold onto their chips. Often, the start of a sharp rise in coin prices occurs after retail investors are panicked and forced to sell.