SpaceX's $800 billion valuation started with repeated rocket explosions

A figure is circulating on Wall Street in 2025: $1.5 trillion. This is not the market capitalization of a tech giant, but the target valuation of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s company, ahead of its upcoming IPO.

Just 23 years ago, the situation was completely different. At that time, a thirty-something entrepreneur who had just cashed out from PayPal decided to dedicate himself to rocket ventures, and few people believed in him. Aerospace giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin even mocked him: a software guy, what right does he have to build rockets?

The Stainless Steel Revolution Behind the Numbers

Today, SpaceX is valued at $800 billion, but what truly sustains this astronomical figure is not the impressive achievements of the Falcon rockets, but the cash flow from Starlink.

By the end of 2025, Starlink’s global active subscribers will reach 7.65 million, with the actual number of users surpassing 24.5 million. This internet system, composed of thousands of low Earth orbit satellites, is transforming from a technological marvel into a global infrastructure. The first principles Musk repeatedly emphasized are perfectly exemplified in Starlink.

Financial data proves this point. SpaceX’s expected revenue in 2025 is $15 billion, projected to soar to $22-24 billion in 2026, with over 80% coming from Starlink operations.

This is not a traditional aerospace contractor but has evolved into a global telecommunications giant with a monopoly-level moat.

From Despair to Survival

But the story’s beginning was far from glamorous.

2008 was the darkest year of Musk’s life. Tesla was on the brink of bankruptcy, SpaceX’s funds were nearly exhausted, and the third rocket launch had just failed over the Pacific Ocean. The media lost their manners, suppliers started demanding payments, and his former idol, “the first man on the moon” Armstrong, publicly mocked him for not understanding aerospace.

The fourth launch was the final gamble.

On September 28, 2008, Falcon 1 launched, and nine minutes later, the engine shut down as planned, followed by thunderous applause in the control room. SpaceX survived. In December, NASA called, awarding a $1.6 billion contract that gave this dying company a new lease on life.

But the real turning point came in 2015.

A Falcon 9 carrying 11 satellites lifted off from Cape Canaveral, and ten minutes later, the first stage landed vertically back at the launch site. At that moment, the old rules of aerospace were shattered. The era of cheap spaceflight was pioneered by this once “loser” company.

Why Now Is the Time to Go Public

Musk once opposed going public. At a company meeting three years ago, he openly said that going public was an “invitation to pain.” So what changed his mind?

The answer is— the cost of ambition.

According to Musk’s roadmap, within two years, the first crewed Starship will conduct an uncrewed Mars landing test, and within four years, humans will set foot on the red planet. But his ultimate vision is the key: to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars within 20 years using 1,000 Starships.

This requires an astronomical amount of capital.

Musk has repeatedly stated that the sole purpose of accumulating wealth is to make humanity a “multi-planetary species.” From this perspective, the hundreds of billions of dollars raised through the IPO will not be spent on yachts or mansions, but on fuel, steel, and liquid oxygen.

If SpaceX successfully raises $30 billion, it will surpass Saudi Aramco’s record of $29 billion in 2019, becoming the largest IPO in human history. Musk himself will also become the world’s first trillion-dollar billionaire.

This listing, rather than being Musk’s “cash-out,” is more like an expensive “toll fee” for humanity’s journey to Mars.