When sovereign funds, listed companies, and Wall Street capital flood into the Bitcoin market, the old pendulum that has accompanied the crypto market for four years seems to be pushed in an unfamiliar direction.

Entering 2026, after the year-end shakeout and consolidation, the market is restarting with a brand new face. The focus of discussion has also shifted — no longer obsessing over the halving cycle, but a deeper question: Are massive institutional capitals transforming the supply and demand structure, and is Bitcoin still dancing to the rhythm of historical patterns, or has it truly entered an unprecedented "super cycle"?

The key point of contention is actually simple: Can the enormous capital influx brought by compliant channels like spot ETFs permanently change the game rules?

**Year-End Cleanup**

In the final period of 2025, the options market experienced the most intense position adjustments in recent years. Data shows that over 45% of open contracts disappeared during this cleanup. This is not just a numerical change — it means that the "artificial support" used by market makers for hedging has been removed, leading to a more genuine market response and freer volatility.

On-chain data tells an even more interesting story. Throughout Q4, the long-held profit-taking positions that had been suppressing prices are now showing signs of easing. The sellers' gunfire has diminished, and the market has stabilized as a result. This provides the soil for the next upward move.

But new questions are already in front of us. The rebound area is mainly controlled by investors who entered near the all-time highs, and their cost basis directly affects the market’s tolerance for risk.