Key Factors Revealed: How Unlocking Coins Drives Cryptocurrency Price Fluctuations

In crypto investing, разлоки монет is an often overlooked but profoundly impactful phenomenon. When a large number of frozen tokens are unlocked at a specific time, market dynamics tend to change significantly. According to expert analysis from IntoTheBlock, these changes in supply can become a key variable in determining the long-term trend of an asset.

The Subtle Impact of Supply Release on the Market

The essence of разлоки монет lies in increasing circulating supply. These tokens were originally locked due to funding round terms or incentive programs, and once released, they can exert downward pressure on prices.

Taking Bitcoin (BTC) as an example, with a current price of $90.43K. Its block reward mechanism is a linear release, meaning a certain amount of new BTC is generated per new block. In contrast, many smaller projects have a larger unlock ratio — their daily dilution rate can be dozens of times that of BTC. This is precisely why market cap size determines the actual impact of разлоки монет: a project with a $10 million market cap releasing 5% of tokens daily is far more disruptive than a project with a $100 billion market cap releasing the same proportion.

Data comparisons from IntoTheBlock show that Worldcoin (WLD) currently trades at $0.56, and despite its relatively small circulating supply, its fully diluted market cap could exceed $11 billion. This indicates that its growth potential is severely limited by разлоки pressure. Conversely, Solana (SOL), priced at $139.31, has a much larger market cap base, so the impact of the same proportion of token release is much milder.

Sudden Unlock Events and Price Volatility

When large amounts of tokens are unlocked in a concentrated manner, market reactions tend to be more intense. These events are called cliff releases, which can release hundreds of millions of tokens within hours, triggering immediate sell-offs from investors.

In 2024, several large-scale разлоки монет events were planned. For example, Wormhole (W), priced at $0.04, plans a major unlock involving one-third of its total supply; Mode (MODE), priced near $0.00, faces significant release pressure; while The Sandbox (SAND), at $0.11, has had historical unlock events that released over 200 million tokens in a short period.

Historical data shows that the market outcomes of such events are not always negative. SAND, after a large разлоки монет event in February, actually rose, indicating that strong market sentiment can offset release pressures. However, Avalanche (AVAX), priced at $13.58, and Arbitrum (ARB), at $0.20, both experienced significant pullbacks after similar events, suggesting that overall market trend and project momentum remain decisive factors.

A Complete Framework for Assessing Unlock Pressure

Focusing solely on the absolute scale of разлоки монет is insufficient. Investors need to understand three relative dimensions:

First, the proportion of the unlock amount relative to circulating supply. Even if 100 million tokens are released, if 10 billion are already in circulation, the impact is relatively limited.

Second, the difference between the fully diluted market cap after release and the current market cap. Many projects’ hidden growth potential has already been absorbed by a large amount of tokens awaiting unlock.

Third, the market cycle stage. During bull markets, incremental capital can absorb new supply; during bear or sideways markets, разлоки монет are more likely to lead to downward price pressure.

Practical Application for Investment Strategies

Tracking разлоки монет schedules has become a must for professional investors. By observing token unlock timelines, investors can:

• Anticipate potential supply shocks and adjust positions accordingly
• Assess the long-term growth potential of projects (higher risk for projects with overly high fully diluted market caps)
• Identify market mispricing opportunities (sometimes unlocks do not lead to the expected decline)

Ultimately, the price impact of разлоки монет depends on the interplay of multiple factors: overall market trend, project fundamentals, investor expectations management, and the scale of release relative to market cap. Understanding this dynamic process is a key step in moving from passive market following to active investment decision-making.