FOMC Decision Week is Coming! BTC's Three-Way Battle Before the $89,000 Threshold

This week is the “Super Central Bank Week” before the end of the year, with the Federal Reserve holding a key policy meeting. Against the backdrop of this macro feast, Bitcoin’s technical picture is telling a subtle story — last week, it successfully completed two swing trades with a total profit of 6.93%, but the rebound momentum is waning.

Macro Environment: Expectation Differentials Are the Deciding Factor

Market expectations for a rate cut in December are largely locked in, but the real variable lies in the Fed’s guidance on the rate cut path for 2025. This is not just a simple rate decision but a watershed that will determine the direction of risk assets for the entire year.

Key time points this week:

• Tuesday: US JOLTS job openings (indicating employment market cooling)
• Wednesday: China CPI and social financing data (Asia liquidity signals)
• Friday: UK GDP, European CPI (confirming global easing expectations)

But these are just supporting roles. The real protagonist is Powell’s dot plot — if hawkish (0–1 rate cuts in 2025), the market will quickly adjust expectations for easing, bond yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and BTC might even test $85,000; if dovish (at least 2 rate cuts in 2025), the easing cycle will accelerate ahead of schedule, and BTC could challenge above $90,000 again.

Capital Flow: Silence Before the Compression

Currently, the market is in a “pre-meeting quiet period.” Although BTC did not effectively regain $90,000 over the weekend, trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating a slowdown in chip turnover, retail sentiment remains stable, and institutions generally reduce risk exposure. Behind this silence, the market is waiting for the Fed to give an answer.

Employment and inflation continue to cool, providing medium-term support, but short-term sentiment can be easily reversed by the dot plot.

Technical Analysis: Rebound Momentum Is Waning

Last week, Bitcoin’s movement was tumultuous — on Monday, it plunged to $83,814 (the lowest point), then V-shaped reversed to $94,172 (intraday high), and finally closed at $90,405, with a slight change of 0.03%, and a trading volume of $13.429 billion.

From the weekly momentum quantification model, the white momentum line has crossed below zero for three weeks, and the blue momentum line is about to follow. The energy bars after the oversold rebound are shrinking; bulls must organize a larger rebound to push the momentum lines back above zero, otherwise bears will release greater shorting power.

On the daily chart, the two momentum lines are gradually approaching from below zero, but the energy bars also show signs of exhaustion — rebound momentum is weakening. The sentiment quantification model remains neutral, with no clear signals for resistance or support indices.

Last Week’s Trading Review: Two Precise Swing Captures

First trade (profit 2.14%): After the price effectively broke below the $89,000 threshold, traders established a 20% short position at $87,103, and ultimately took profit at the second support zone at $84,989, perfectly following the “break and follow” discipline.

Second trade (profit 4.44%): After support at $89,000 held and rebounded, patiently waiting for entry into the first resistance zone ($94,000–$96,500). When signals appeared at $93,321, a 10% short position was established, successfully capturing the pullback swing, and profit was taken near $89,355.

These two trades confirmed the effectiveness of the $89,000 threshold — the midweek high of $94,172 and the predicted first resistance zone lower limit of $94,000 differ by only $172.

This Week’s Market Framework: Three Defensive Lines

It is expected that the price will mostly fluctuate within a range this week. The market has formed a clear three-layer defense:

Upper resistance levels:

• First layer: $91,000
• Second layer: $94,000–$96,500
• Third layer (key): $98,500–$100,000

Lower support levels:

• First layer: $85,500–$87,500
• Second layer: $83,500
• Third layer (key): around $80,000

Currently, the market is oscillating narrowly between $91,000 and $87,000, waiting for a direction.

Trading Plan for This Week: Two Response Strategies

Basic allocation: Maintain 65% mid-line short positions, use 30% for stop-loss setups, and operate on 60-minute/240-minute cycles to capture price differentials.

Plan A (Rebound Short): If early-week oscillates upward

• Entry: When price rebounds to $91,000–$94,200 and shows resistance, establish 15% short positions
• Add: If it continues to rebound to $98,500 and faces resistance again, add another 15% short
• Risk control: Set all short stop-loss above $100,000
• Reduce: After the rebound ends and price moves down, close 50% at the first support resistance
• Close: When it continues downward and faces resistance near the second support zone, fully exit

Plan B (Deep dip to catch rebound): If early-week effectively breaks below $87,500 downward

• Entry: When price drops to $83,500–$80,000 and shows top signals, establish 15% long positions
• Risk control: Stop-loss below $80,000
• Close: When price rebounds to $87,500–$88,000 and faces resistance, close all positions for profit

Risk Management Rules: Dynamic Lock-in of Floating Profits

• Immediately upon opening: Set initial stop-loss
• At 1% profit: Move stop-loss to breakeven (entry price)
• At 2% profit: Move stop-loss to 1% profit level
• Continuously: For each additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically locking in gains

(Investors can adjust the 1% trigger threshold based on risk appetite and asset volatility)

Latest Market Data (January 12, 2026)

• BTC current price: $90.87K
• 24h high: $92.52K
• 24h low: $90.24K
• 24h change: +0.10%
• 7-day change: -1.71%
• 24h volume: $737.92M

From real-time data, BTC is still in a rebound process, but signs of waning momentum are evident. The last three trading days before the Fed decision are highly volatile.

Conclusion: Choosing the Boundary Line

This week’s key is not short-term price fluctuations but the re-pricing of risk asset expectations for 2025 based on the Fed’s decision. BTC is waiting at the technical boundary of $89,000 for macro decisions to guide micro trends. If the Fed’s dot plot turns dovish, a year-end rebound may occur; if hawkish, a short-term correction is possible — but the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. For traders, the core task is to prepare for both scenarios A and B, and strictly adhere to the discipline around the $89,000 boundary line.