Macroeconomic conditions favor Bitcoin, not a crash in 2026

The widespread investor perspective suggesting a “big Bitcoin crash in 2026” is not supported by actual market indicators. Experienced cryptocurrency market analyst Michaël van de Poppe dismisses this narrative, pointing to fundamental discrepancies between common pessimism and macroeconomic data. In reality, the current economic situation—with a weakening US labor market, increasing liquidity needs, and pressure to cut interest rates—creates favorable conditions for risk assets.

Changing Dynamics of Bitcoin Cycles

The classic four-year cycle, which historically dominated the cryptocurrency market, no longer aligns with current market conditions. Van de Poppe notes that Bitcoin is evolving into a structure more focused on institutional capital, and its behavior diverges from traditional patterns. Although looking back, we see sharp corrections—about 30% in 2014, 74% in 2018, and 64% in 2022—the current horizontal market phase suggests different mechanisms. The fear of repeating a major crash is a natural investor reaction, but the analyst argues that histories do not always repeat identically.

Capital Shift Between Gold and Bitcoin

Recent months have revealed a significant capital flow into gold, which has broken its historical highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has remained relatively weak compared to this traditional safe haven. However, van de Poppe interprets this dynamic as a systemic breakout rather than the start of a prolonged Medvedev. Historical precedents show that similar periods of gold preference were followed by intense rallies in more risky assets. Given that gold’s market value increased by trillions of dollars in a short period, Bitcoin has a much higher potential in a similar liquidity environment.

Current Valuation of Bitcoin Relative to Money Supply

From a comparative perspective based on the M2 money supply indicator, neither gold nor Bitcoin appear highly valued. In the context of rising unemployment rates, declining bond yields, and increasing central bank needs, actual liquidity conditions suggest rather an undervaluation of alternative assets. Especially in the United States, the combination of a weak labor market and public debt forces maintaining low interest rates, which in the long term favors growth in higher-risk assets.

Technical Signals Indicate Stabilization

A relatively strong argument is the technical positioning of the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Bitcoin-to-gold pair has fallen into oversold territory—a rarity that historically correlates with the formation of market bottoms. When the indicator reaches such extremes, a rebound usually occurs rather than a deepening of the downtrend. In light of these observations, the narrative of an “inevitable big crash” in 2026 seems exaggerated.

Future Outlook

Van de Poppe states that markets are closer to an unexpected rebound than a downward move. It is impossible to definitively predict whether 2026 will be a year of bull or bear markets, but data points to potential stabilization and positive surprises. The current Bitcoin price at $90.79K remains well below previous highs. If Bitcoin again approaches the $100,000 barrier, this move could accelerate, attracting pessimistic investors back to the market. In reality, the current market disposition—both from macroeconomic data and technical signals—suggests a greater risk of underestimating Bitcoin’s potential than overestimating it.