Many people may still have a one-sided understanding of the recent series of policy adjustments, but in reality, the underlying chess game is far more complex than it appears on the surface.

Seemingly independent measures are actually all exerting effort in the same direction. For example, the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency appears to be aimed at reducing government spending on the surface, but it also eliminates dissenting voices within the agency and creates expectations of fiscal tightening, paving the way for subsequent tariff increase policies.

Tariff hikes are a multi-dimensional strike. Directly increasing fiscal revenue is one aspect, solving certain countries' illegal military-industrial issues is another, and simultaneously exerting pressure on specific economies. This is a classic example of one stone hitting three birds.

Now, let's look at the most interesting part—BTC strategic reserves. This is not just about fulfilling campaign promises. With official endorsement, it directly creates a significant positive outlook for the entire crypto ecosystem. In turn, crypto prosperity stimulates the development of the Web3 industry, which means the US can collect more taxes from this emerging sector. Meanwhile, the demand for stablecoins will rise accordingly, increasing the demand for US Treasuries and thereby strengthening the attractiveness of dollar assets.

Changes in the Venezuela situation are no exception. On one hand, it is about reclaiming historical oil interests, and participating in local oil extraction could increase related industry revenue and tax contributions. More importantly, this will improve the global oil and gas supply pattern, potentially lowering oil prices and CPI, indirectly weakening the energy advantage and international alliances of certain economies. It can also support the US dollar exchange rate, preventing excessive liquidity outflows during rate-cutting cycles.

Adjustments in the attitude of the Federal Reserve Chair are also worth pondering. The current chair was nominated at that time, but his attitude was not very cooperative when faced with clear demands for rate cuts. The current pressure exerted may be a warning to others or just a show of strength. Either way, it is a signal—both to the incoming new chair and to other Federal Reserve officials.

The overall effect is to promote the rate-cutting process. However, whether there will actually be rate cuts in the first half of the year remains to be seen as policy directions continue to unfold. The situation in the second half of the year may become clearer, but it is only a possibility. After all, market expectations are themselves carefully crafted, and over-committing can easily lead to pitfalls.

Crypto market participants should pay attention to the fact that the advancement of BTC strategic reserves and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies will have long-term impacts on market sentiment. Short-term fluctuations are difficult to predict, but medium-term trends are worth monitoring.