First Principles (Elon Musk's most commonly used expression)

1. Identify what you believe to be the most fundamental fact about this matter (these facts must be physical, logical, and almost impossible to question)

2. Be convinced that these facts are true (rather than "everyone says so" or "it's always been this way")

3. Starting from these foundational truths, reason upward step by step to see what conclusions can be drawn
The same applies to trading cryptocurrencies.