#美国贸易赤字状况 The US employment data has been released—unemployment rate drops, and the market has completely changed.

Polymarket traders quickly responded: the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in January has surged to 96%, and rate cuts are basically off the table. The previously hyped "rate cut expectations" that boosted the crypto market have now been pushed further away. Traders are also considering a possible 50 basis point cut over the year, but recent hopes have been dashed.

What does the economic data indicate? It’s not that the economy is so bad that the central bank needs to flood the market with liquidity immediately, but rather that things aren’t as urgent. The logic that supported the market’s rise has been pierced by this data.

What about in the short term? Liquidity expectations will inevitably tighten. Hot money will either withdraw or stay on the sidelines—it's unlikely to continue pouring in wildly. Volatility will increase, with bulls and bears each holding their ground, and prices may jump up and down or even seek support levels downward. $BTC will experience particularly noticeable fluctuations.

What should be done? The first step is to review your leverage and positions. Deleveraging and reducing holdings are not signs of defeat but basic skills to protect your principal. Don’t expect the market to reverse and surge immediately after the data is released; this is a negative signal, and the market needs time to digest it.

Where are the next points of focus? Keep an eye on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s defense of key price levels. Whether they can hold recent lows is crucial—breaking down with increased volume could mean deeper adjustments, while holding firm shows buying interest remains resilient.

Looking at the bigger picture, not cutting rates in January does not mean rates won’t be cut this year. Market focus will shift to the next economic data and the March Federal Reserve meeting. In the short term, there will be pressure, but in the long term, these key events will matter most.

In summary: employment data has put an end to the idea of "rapid rate cuts," and in the short term, it has cooled the crypto market, bringing increased volatility and adjustment pressure. Identifying effective support levels and developing defensive strategies are crucial—losing less money is the first step to making money.