Countdown 5 days: US Senate votes on the CLARITY Act on January 15th, crypto regulatory framework is about to take shape

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold an executive session on January 15th to review the highly anticipated “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act). This is not only a formal internal committee review but also a crucial step in shifting the crypto market regulatory framework from the “Enforcement Era” to the “Clear Rules Era.” The current market is in a state of anticipation and divergence, with Bitcoin repeatedly testing near $90,000, and institutional and retail expectations are vastly different.

Core Content Analysis of the CLARITY Act

Clarification of the Regulatory Framework

The core logic of the CLARITY Act is “regulation by category.” According to information, the bill will clarify:

• Digital Commodities (regulated by CFTC): Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are defined as digital commodities, not securities
• Investment Contract Assets (regulated by SEC): Cryptographic assets that meet the “investment contract” criteria are regulated as securities
• Self-Custody Principles: Legally affirm Bitcoin’s autonomous custody rights for the first time, eliminating long-standing regulatory gray areas in the industry

This classification may seem technical but is profoundly significant. It provides market participants with a “rulebook” rather than leaving them to navigate the uncertainties of the “Enforcement Era.”

Specific Impacts on Different Sectors

Voting Schedule and Next Steps

Key upcoming milestones

According to the latest news, the progression timetable for the CLARITY Act is very tight:

1. January 15th (Thursday) 10:00: Senate Banking Committee executive session for review and markup
2. After January 15th: If approved by the committee, submitted for full Senate vote
3. Before January 30th: Senate aims to complete the full vote before the government budget deadline
4. Final stage: House review and presidential signing

Sources mention Senate Chair “will push for a vote at all costs,” indicating unprecedented momentum behind this push.

Market Status: Divergence and Opportunities

Institutional Quietly Positioning

Although the market appears “calm” on the surface, on-chain data reveals true intentions:

• Ethereum on-chain RWA (Real-World Asset) volume exceeds $12.5 billion, stablecoin circulation surpasses $62 billion, with the two core sectors dominating over 60% of the market
• Institutional staking of Ethereum has matched Bitcoin holdings ratios, with traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley submitting Ethereum trust filings
• Institutions like BitMine recently staked over 590,000 ETH, with an annualized yield approaching $400 million, shifting from “holding” to “earning”

These data points indicate that institutional capital is quietly preparing for large-scale entry once the regulatory framework becomes clearer.

Retail Investors and Market Divergence

On the other hand, market sentiment remains complex. Bitcoin once fell below $90,000, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $460 million and nearly 138,000 liquidations. This reflects several issues:

• Concerns over non-farm payroll data (Federal Reserve rate cut expectations)
• Uncertainty about whether the bill will actually pass
• Passive liquidations of short-term leveraged positions

Why This Time Is Different

From “Enforcement Era” to “Rules Era”

In the past, the crypto market operated under the “Enforcement Era”—regulators defined rules through enforcement actions. This created huge uncertainty, causing institutional investors to hesitate.

The CLARITY Act represents a fundamental shift: from passive enforcement to proactive legislation. Once passed, the crypto market will have a clear legal framework, which will:

• Significantly reduce compliance costs for institutional entry
• Eliminate worries about sudden regulatory policy changes
• Provide legal protections for core infrastructure like stablecoins and exchanges

But Stay Clear-Eyed

Personal opinion: This bill is indeed a major positive, but the market’s current reaction is overly pessimistic. It’s important to note that:

• Voting is only the first step; the House and the President’s approval are still needed
• Even if passed, detailed implementation rules will take time to finalize
• In the short term, market volatility may continue due to uncertainty

Summary

The review of the CLARITY Act by the committee on January 15th marks a key moment in clarifying the crypto market’s regulatory framework. If passed, it will define Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies as digital commodities, clearing the biggest obstacle for large-scale institutional entry. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with institutions quietly positioning and retail sentiment divided. This is the “dark before dawn.” The next five days could determine the mid-term direction of the crypto market—transitioning from the uncertain “Enforcement Era” to the clear “Rules Era.”