Major financial research suggests AI adoption could push unemployment up by roughly half a percentage point, primarily through frictional unemployment as workers transition between roles. The real wildcards? If artificial intelligence gets deployed faster than expected, or if displacement accelerates beyond current models, unemployment could face even steeper pressure. These baseline calculations assume a measured adoption curve, but history shows tech transitions rarely follow the script. Markets watching labor data closely—any surprise moves in employment figures could ripple across risk assets and influence central bank decisions down the road.