#永续合约市场动态 The market behavior during Christmas week tests human nature the most. Seeing Bitcoin and ETH perpetual contracts decrease by over $5 billion in open interest overnight, my first reaction is not excitement but relief—this indicates the market is actively deleveraging rather than blindly adding positions.

Liquidity contraction during holidays often leads to unexpected volatility. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences 5%-7% price swings during Christmas week, and this Friday also faces large-scale expirations of 300,000 BTC options and 446,000 IBIT options. Just on Deribit, over 50% of open contracts are concentrated on the holiday, with the biggest pain point around $95,000. At such times, any aggressive position could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

What I pay more attention to is the market's rational performance—put open interest is decreasing, indicating that shorts are also reducing risk. Although the risk reversal indicator is slightly bearish, it has significantly eased compared to the past 30 days. In the short term, the market may continue to oscillate, but based on historical experience, liquidity returning after the holidays often leads to mean reversion.

The most important thing during this period is not bottom-fishing or chasing highs, but examining your position structure. Ensure your allocations can withstand such volatility and that your leverage exposure remains within a comfortable range. Long-term mindset is most easily tested during short-term turbulence but also best demonstrates its value.